Gday all, thought I would quickly have a look at the AB's stats for 2016 and it quickly became apparent how lopsided games with Peyper have been. Stats speak for themselves. Hopefully no errors, stats taken from NZ Herald site.
One more time out for the First XV? Or tinkering around the edges?
I'm inclined to hope for the former.
Expect TJP to start.
How is Cane's ankle? So does Todd start? Ardie looked handy in his cameo.
JK back at 6 surely.
Crotty back and available?
BFA was apparently knocked. His availability or otherwise could shake up the back three. Dagg would have to be 15 but what yo do on the wings in that eventuality?
Not going to posit a team until we know who is available. Which will make it difficult for Shag not havIng suitable guidance ... but am sure he'll manage.
WRT France. Who has watched them? I didn't take all that much notice of the game this morning but it was obviously close. How ate they looking as a team.
I did think they blew that last play (despite Hometown refusing to award a penalty). If they were going to go for the dg they should have worked the pick and go to the posts a bit more rather than trying from 35m out.
Well ... watching BeIN Sport's round up of the Test matches from overnight it seems green is the new black.
Having just thrashed Canada all they have to do is turn up next week ...
Ok that's a little overstated but it will be a fascinating clash.
So what do the good guys do to fix up the fuck up from Soldier Field?
My conjecture as to selections as follows.
Don't expect too many surprises. Mainly the bench mix.
Not 100% sure on injuries so let me know if I'm wrong.
The top four on rotation. LH starting option open due to Moody's propensity to give away penalties. Mind you it might be good to have the option to drag the guy should a YC loom.
Franks to start as Charlie is a better impact benchie.
Coles starting. Taylor bench. Duh.
BBBR and Barrett.
JK, Cane, Read.
The interest for me is around the mix on the bench to cover locks and loosie.
Given the JK experiment did not go 100% to plan I'd be tempted to have a lock option. Either Paddy T - who would have benefitted from a couple of games in a row - or Luatua over Squire. You guys who watched v Italy will have to tell us Aus based Ferners if eithef of those is an option.
I expect Ardie as back up 7.
I'd pick Smith on reputation. How did he look last night? Regardless AS and TJP in the XXXIII.
Ioane Jr would be my choice.
The recent discussion about the relative worth of players in comparison to their peers made me look up some stats on backrow players in Super Rugby. Unlike baseball, it appears to be more difficult looking for a specific skill that you want from a certain position. Apparently, it's not as easy as "make tackles".
This is what I had to work with:
Open play kicks
*Frustratingly for flankers, I could not locate that stat for every player. Suffice to say that this year Pocock was clearly the best at it, followed by Savea.
I took every player who had played more than four games and 200 minutes to exclude the outliers, worked out their involvements against the above measures per minute played and ranked them.
Then I realised that if you play against weaker teams, your stats are more likely to look good, so I normalized the data depending on their final ladder position, i.e. if you play the Kings and Sunwolves, you're more likely to rack up big carry metres etc. than you are if you're playing against those who made the finals...