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And then there were seven! Print E-mail
Written by LA Kiwi   
Monday, 30 April 2007
So what a weekend we just had! The top two (kiwi) teams both lost (Crusaders to the Brumbies, and the Blues to the Bulls). Neither got any points as well. And then the teams behind them, from 3rd through 7th all won (Sharks, Bulls, Chiefs, Brumbies and the Force). So we're left with 7 teams still in with a chance of getting into the semis, from the Force on 32 points to the Crusaders on 41. Only the Crusaders are assured of a semi final spot (Chiefs would have to beat them by 54 points, to make a 108 points differential turn-around, for them to lose out, as well as other results go against them).

So here's the table, with just the one round left to play. This shows wins, total points, and for and against differential (which decides order if teams end up on same points). Ignoring everyone this week who have no chance for semi final spots - so the Hurricanes, Highlanders, Stormers, Lions, Cheetahs, Waratahs and Reds.
 
Team Wins  Points  Points Diff  Last Game 
Crusaders    8 41 +153 Chiefs
Sharks 9 40 +115 Stormers
Blues 8 37 +93 Force
Bulls 8 37 +76 Reds
Chiefs 6 36 +46 Crusaders
Brumbies 8 35 +42 Highlanders
Force 6 32 +45 Blues

So after 12 completed rounds, there are 'technically' 7 teams still in the hunt. Four of these teams play each other, Crusaders vs the Chiefs and the Blues vs the Force, with the other three technically having easy games. Here's the order of the games next weekend, and the possible permutations. I've listed all the possibilities for each team. Note, its going to come down to the last game of the round - Bulls vs Reds, before the final four are likely to be finally worked out.

First game is the Crusaders vs Chiefs - Jade Stadium 7:35 Friday evening

Crusadersi

  • Crusaders win with a bonus point - 46. They qualify first and assure themselves of a home semi (and final). This will knock out the Chiefs.
  • Crusaders win without a bonus point - 45. They qualify either first or second and assure themselves of a home semi. Sharks can only beat them into 1st spot by winning with a bonus point - and winning by more than 38 points than what the Crusaders do. This will knock out the Chiefs.
  • Crusaders draw with or without a bonus point - 43 or 44. They qualify second if the Sharks win, and assure themselves of a home semi. If the Sharks lose they qualify first and get a home final as well.
  • Crusaders lose with either one or two bonus point 42 or 43. They qualify second if the Sharks win, and assure themselves of a home semi. If the Sharks lose they get a home final as well.This assumes the Blues don't win and game 60 points differential over the Crusaders (who only get one bonus point)
  • Crusaders lose with no bonus points - 41. Can finish as low as 4th if Sharks win and both the Blues and Bulls win with a bonus point.

Chiefs
 
  • Chiefs win with a bonus point - 41. They could qualify as high as second and assure themselves of a home semi. They would also need the Sharks to lose without a bonus point and the Blues and Bulls to also lose (possible that the Blues and Bulls could win, without bonus points, but the Chiefs would need to gain 30 points in points differential on the Bulls and 47 on the Blues). This would technically knock out the Force as they would need to win by 49 points over the Blues (with the bonus point) and have the Bulls (with no bonus points) and the Brumbies lose.
  • Chiefs win without a bonus point - 40. They could qualify either third if the Blues and Bulls both lose and the Brumbies also lose or win without a bonus point. Can qualify 4th if one of the Blues, Bulls or Brumbies (with a bonus point) win.
  • Chiefs draw with a bonus point - 39. Can qualify 3rd, iif the Brumbies lose and the Blues and Bulls both lose without two bonus points (and big margins, Bulls 31, Blues 48). Can qualify 4th if only one of the Blues, or Bulls get a win (or a two bonus point close lost) or the Brumbies win by 5.
  • Chiefs draw or lose with two bonus points - 38. Can qualify 3rd, if the Brumbies lose and the Blues and Bulls both lose without a bonus point, or both lose (with the 4 try bonus point), but by big margins - Bulls 31 more than the Chiefs and Blues 48 more than the Chiefs. Can qualify 4th if only one of the Blues, or Bulls get a bonus point (or win), or the Brumbies win.
  • Chiefs lose with one bonus point - 37. They could only qualify 4th if the Brumbies and Force don't win, and the Bulls lose to the Reds by more than 31.
  • Chiefs lose with no bonus points - 36. This knocks themselves out.

Next game that has semi final bearings is the Highlanders vs Brumbies - Carisbrook 5:30pm Saturday evening

Brumbiesi

  • Brumbies win with a bonus point - 40. They could qualify as high as second and assure themselves of a home semi. They would also need the Sharks to lose without a bonus point and the Blues, Bulls and Chiefs to also lose. They would need to gain 74 differential points on the Sharks though. Otherwise they could qualify 3rd if all the Blues, Bulls and Chiefs lose. If only one of those 3 teams win, they'll qualify 4th.
  • Brumbies win without a bonus point - 39. Can qualify 3rd, if the Blues and Bulls both lose without two bonus points, and the Chiefs lose. Can qualify 4th if only one of the Blues, Bulls or Chiefs win.
  • Brumbies draw with a bonus point - 38. Can qualify 3rd, if the Chiefs lose and the Blues and Bulls both lose without two bonus points. Can qualify 4th if only one of the Blues, Bulls or Chiefs win.
  • Brumbies draw or lose with two bonus points - 37. Can qualify 3rd, if the Chiefs lose and the Blues and Bulls both lose by big margins without a bonus point, - Bulls 35 more than the Brumbies and Blues 42 more than the Brumbies. Can qualify 4th if the Chiefs lose, and one of the Blues or Bulls lose (without scoring a bonus point) by the margins just mentioned.
  • Brumbies lose with or without a bonus points - 35 or 36. This knocks themselves out.

The third game that has semi final bearings is the Force vs Blues - Perth 5:05pm Saturday evening

Forcei

  • Force win with a bonus point - 37. Can qualify 3rd, if the Chiefs and Brumbies lose and the Blues and Bulls both lose by big margins without a bonus point, - need to gain on points differential Bulls 32 and Blues 48. Can qualify 4th if the Chiefs and Brumbies lose, and one of the Blues or Bulls lose (without scoring a bonus point) by the margins just mentioned.
  • Force win without bonus point, draw or lose - 32, 33, 34, 35 or 36. This knocks themselves out.

Bluesi

  • Blues win with a bonus point - 42. They could qualify in first, and assure themselves a home semi (and final). They would also need the Crusaders and Sharks to lose without a bonus point and Bulls to not score more than 18 than they do on points differential. If only one of those three win (if it's the Bulls, they need to score plus 18 on points differential), then the Blues will qualify in 2nd. If two win, they'll qualify 3rd and if all 3 do, they will qualify in 4th. This will knock out the Force.
  • Blues win without a bonus point - 41. They could qualify in first, and assure themselves a home semi (and final). They would also need the Crusaders to lose (and to also drop 61 in points differential) and Sharks to lose without a bonus point and Bulls to not score the bonus point (and win). If only one of those three win (if it's the Bulls, they need to score bonus point, or get plus 18 on points differential), then the Blues will qualify in 2nd. If two win, they'll qualify 3rd and if all 3 do, they will qualify in 4th. This will knock out the Force.
  • Blues draw or lose with bonus point(s) - 38, 39 or 40. Can stay in 3rd if the Bulls, Chiefs and Brumbies all lose. Can qualify 4th if only one of the Bulls, Chiefs or Brumbies win. Note a draw will knock out the Force.
  • Blues lose without a bonus point - 37. Can stay in 3rd if the they don't lose to the Force by 48, the Bulls lose (and don't gain 18 differential points on the Blues), and the Chiefs, and Brumbies both lose. Can qualify 4th if only one of the Bulls, Chiefs or Brumbies win and the Force don't beat them by 48 or more.

The fourth game that has semi final bearings is the Stormers vs Sharks - Cape Town ?:?? Sunday afternoon

Sharksi

  • Sharks win with a bonus point - 45. They could qualify in first, if the Crusaders win without a bonus and the Sharks points differential against the Crusaders improves by 39. If the Crusaders also win with a bonus, they'll qualify 2nd. Either way they get a home semi final.
  • Sharks win without a bonus point or draw with a bonus point - 43 or 44. They could qualify in 1st, if the Crusaders lose. If the Crusaders win, they'll qualify 2nd. Either way they get a home semi final.
  • Sharks draw or lose with two bonus points - 42. They could qualify 1st, if the Crusaders, Blues and Bulls lose, or the Blues and Bulls win, but with no bonus point. Can stay in 2rd if the Blues, Bulls don't win with a bonus point (and make up points differential - Blues 23, Bulls 40). Qualify in 3rd if one of the Blues or Bulls gain enough on points differential, or 4th if both do.
  • Sharks lose with a bonus point - 41. Can qualify 1st if the Crusaders lose by a larger margin than the Sharks (by at leat 38). Can stay in 2rd if the Blues, Bulls, Chiefs and Brumbies don't win (Brumbies also need to improve their points differential over the Sharks by 74 if they win). If only one of those win (and points differential for Brumbies) the Sharks qualify 3rd, if two win, they qualify 4th.
  • Sharks lose without a bonus point - 40. Can stay in 2rd if the Blues, Bulls, Chiefs and Brumbies don't win (Brumbies also need to improve their points differential over the Sharks by 74 if they win). If only one of those win (and points differential for Brumbies) the Sharks qualify 3rd, if two win, they qualify 4th.

The last game of the round, which will still have semi final ramifications, is the Bulls vs Reds - Pretoria ?:?? Sunday afternoon

Bullsi

  • Bulls win with a bonus point - 42. They could qualify in first, and assure themselves a home semi (and final). They would also need the Crusaders and Sharks to lose without a bonus point and the Blues if they win with a bonus point to gain 18 points on them on points differential. If only one of the Crusaders, Sharks or Blues win (with Bonus Point and retaining their points differential above the Bulls) then the Bulls would come in 2nd. If two of those teams win, they'd come third and if three, then fourth.
  • Bulls win without a bonus point - 41. They could qualify in first, and assure themselves a home semi (and final). They would also need the Crusaders to lose (and to also drop 78 in points differential) and Sharks to lose without a bonus point and Blues to not score the bonus point (and win). If only one of those three win (if it's the Blues, they need to score bonus point, or get plus 18 on points differential), then the Bulls will qualify in 2nd. If two win, they'll qualify 3rd and if all 3 do, they will qualify in 4th. This will knock out the Force.
  • Bulls draw or lose with bonus point(s) - 38, 39 or 40. Can move to 3rd if the Blues lose with no bonus points, or if both teams get the same amount of bonus points (by losing) but the Blues lose by 18 more than the Bulls - and the Chiefs and Brumbies both lose. Can qualify 4th if only one of the Bulls, Chiefs or Brumbies win. If both Bulls and Blues draw, and the Chiefs and Brumbies both lose, then the Bulls remain in 4th.
  • Bulls lose without a bonus point - 37. Can move to 3rd if the the Blues get beaten as well without a bonus point (and get beaten by 18 more than the Bulls lose) as well as the Chiefs and Brumbies lose. Can qualify 4th if the Chiefs don't win with a bonus point (and add 31 to their points differential) and the Brumbies don't win.

Simple!! 
Probably a number of errors - but it shows the many permutations.

Bring on the last week!

 
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