Right-o, two days till the start of the biggest
cricket tourney on the planet. I’ve been reading, listening and watching all the
previews and its time to add my two cents worth. I did read the excellent
articles by PaarlBok and Virgil and will try not repeating what they said.
Allstar helped in the writing of this post.
Firstly the pools.
Pool A: Australia, South Africa, Scotland, Netherlands Hosted @ St Kitts &
Nevis
Pool B: Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh, Bermuda. Hosted @ Trinidad and
Tobago
Pool C: New Zealand, England, Kenya, Canada Hosted @ St Lucia
Pool D: Pakistan, West Indies, Zimbabwe, Ireland Hosted @ Jamaica
Whilst expanding the game is important to the ICC, I believe there are too
many minnows in this cup. In my opinion, maybe use the lead-up tourneys to pick
the top two teams and revert to the 92’ format, each team playing each other
once, and the top four going through the semi finals. However with the islands
geography leading itself quite well to the pool system, and the ICC competing
with the IRB for the coveted title “Morons of the century” – these things are
purely academic to debate.
What can be debated are the chances of the “Super
8” team to progress to the final four. I’m not going to bother debating the pool
results, apart from the big game between the two top teams in each pool.
South Africa has the advantage of being ranked one in the world and
playing Australia in their pool. After that they can be fairly confident they
can get on a roll, playing teams that aren’t Australia for five matches. Pollock
is THE key; he has bowl well, get early wickets and keeps the economy rate low.
Ntini is good, but Pollock is the linchpin of the attack. In batting its Gibbes
as the key, he fires early, and the platform will be laid for Kemp, Boucher and
Pollock to let loose the late innings fireworks. They have the wood on the black
caps, Windies and Pakistan and should beat those three in the super 8 (a cynic
am I), and one more win should be enough to push them into the semis, where they
will pray they don’t meet Australia. Spin is a weakness.
My first semi-finalist.
England. Several key players here. They have proved they can win without
Vaughan at the helm, but his fitness will be crucial. He doesn’t need to score a
run, but simply stand at mid-off and say “Freddie – you’re bowling now” – and
the English lift immensely. KP and Collingwood anchor the batting – and Flintoff
and Monty rule the bowling – that much is clear. However the English need to
believe, like they did in 05. I’m not convinced they do. They lack the recent
run of ODI form – that series win in Australia aside, before that they were
awful. I think something will go wrong or they just won’t lift enough. Plunket
leaks runs, and too many players are on cusp on recurring injuries. Joyce is not
consistent enough, and Vaughan is not the run machine he used to be. I don’t
think they’ll make the semis.
Pakistan.
With their recent controversy, I count Pakistan out. They have a top
batting line-up, but it has a poor record in the windies. The loss of Aktar,
Asif and Razzaq is too much to overcome in my opinion, is leaves too much on the
shining head of Rana Naved, who is rather expensive. The batting with Yousuf,
Yousis and Inzamam is important to say the least, but the two Ys have a poor
record in the windies. Unless Shahid Afridi goes all Kluenser re 1999, they have
the chances of Caleb Ralph in a 100m race against Habana.
http://content-nz.cricinfo.com/columns/content/story/281757.html
I rule them out of my semi final contenders list.
(Allstar’s extra The Pakistan team, a bit like Hurricanes, have a lot of
talent, but you can never tell which team will turn up)
Sri Lanka.
Everyone’s dark horses and I’m jumping on the bandwagon. They showed a
tonne of steel when they toured NZ in December, Malinga, Murali, Vaas form the
basis for an impressive attack. The supposed slow nature of the windies pitches
will help their part time bowlers. Tom Moody and Mahela, have slowly moulded
this unit into a tough side. Sanath Jayasuriya is the biggest ace in their hand,
the words war horse summarise this man – but he is still feared by new ball
bowlers world-wide. With the talent of Sangakara to steady the middle innings
things are looking good for Sri Lanka in the batting stakes. The only big issue
I see is the lack of a death batsman, a huge hitter who can finish an innings,
Dilshan is not in the class of Symonds, Oram or Freddie. Still I think this team
is my Semi finalist number two.
They also have Allstar’s and Voltman’s money riding on them – a death
curse some may say.
India
The best batting line-up in the comp? Maybe. But all the batting in the
world can’t save you if your bowlers aren’t up to it. If you don’t believe me
email
This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it
. Tendulkar,
Dhoni, Ganguly, Yuvraj, Dravid and co will torment opposition bowlers all they
want. Dhoni will be especially dangerous, he is growing into his Hussey role
nicely – and has a touch of Gilchrist in him too. The bowlers are crucial – can
Kumble and Harbhajan Singh – provide the spin force that will be needed. Their
battle with Vettori and Jeetan – for the cricket lover will be great to watch.
Zaheer Khan, Patel, Pathan and Shanthakumaran Sreesanth, will have to contain
the rampaging openers of very team – a task I think is beyond them. That is the
crux of India’s chances, the opening bowling, if I am wrong India have a good
chance, but I doubt it. Please don’t hurt me Salil. A billion people will
disagree with me, and will be backing their team all the way. Not in my top
four.
The home team: The West Indies.
They have the batting, the bowling – but do they have the fielding? More
balls go through their legs than…. well let’s leave the similes for a while.
Lara is settling back into his captaincy role, and along with Gayle, Chanderpaul,
and Sarwan forms the basis of the batting. Bravo, Gayle and Bradshaw lead the
bowling. I don’t really think they are the real deal yet however, and they won’t
make it past the Super 8. The eighty five they were bowled out for has slightly
clouded my judgement, but not totally. I think they and Pakistan will be the
disappointments of this tournament
Australia. Easily a semi finalist. McGrath, Ponting, Gilchrist, Hussey,
Symonds if fit and the promising Tait make sure of that. We may have done them
3-0, but they still have the sheer class to make the semis, where anything can
happen. Enough has been said about the Aussies, but they look the goods. Brett
Lee is a massive loss, maybe enough to change a result or two, but they are my
semi finalist number three.
New Zealand, the fuck caps, the black craps, Fleming’s lemmings.
Who knows with this team? They are class, Bond, Vettori, Flemo and
Sawmiller Oram (missing fingers), would be contenders for most other
international teams. So we have the class. We have the cunningest Captain around
and Mark Richardson over there to inspire them. Will we make the top four –yes I
say. The loss of Astle and the non-selection of Martin hurt – as does the
inclusion of Tuffey – who I initially supported, but now don’t, all are cons in
our eyes. However the drubbing of Australia over here, and the fact we have
Taylor and Vincent in form, and Bond glued back together all aid my feeling that
New Zealand are my fourth semi finalist.
Summary – South Africa, Sri Lanka, Shackle draggers and NZ are my and
Allstar’s top four. From there my crystal ball breaks down.
Both Allstar and I believe 400 will be seen again this world cup by one
team, I also believe one man will score 200. It might be Daryl Tuffey bowling
however.
Should be darn good watching
|
![1229med[1].jpg](http://www.thesilverfern.com/images/abs_157/1229med[1].jpg)
