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Now, I'm not claiming that Australia are
unbeatable or better than the ABs in any way, but I have noticed a bit of a
trend with Australia.
First of all, the main Their defence is very
good - No holes for outside backs - they don't use a psycho rush defence a la us
last game, but instead keep their defensive line together, well organised and on
the gain line (generally) - They don't concede too many metres and concede few
line breaks as a result.
Now, their back play is shite. I know this
might be a little controversial but they are lacklustre and profited against
shoddy defences from NZ and SA in the past few weeks. The closest example I can
find of a similar lacklustre but solid playing style was the 2003 England squad
- which won them the world cup, so please don't take my description of it as too
much of a derogatory comment.
They constantly use the inside ball. Their
backline tactics seem fairly simple, they use crash ball after crash ball in
building up phases and wait for an opportunity/infringement. The only place they
are really dangerous is off the set piece, otherwise they seem pretty raw to me.
In terms of defensive targets in the backline -
there aren't too many and it depends on who plays where. Larkham is no easy man
to beat and the only rationale I can see for targeting him (other than
repetitively using inside runners to create width) is to force an injury/ruffle
his feathers a little. Major backline target should be Giteau at 12 (and by
virtue of that, the Larkham-Giteau channel is far weaker than the
Giteau-Mortlock channel). This is not suggesting he is an incompetent defender,
but he tends to get beaten in the tackle (as in he ends up on his back and
concedes a metre or two), which gets us on the front foot and creates the
possibility for offloads.
So now that I've briefly assessed their style
of play, what is their weakness?
Well, there are probably a good number, (especially Huxley at the back if he
starts) but from my PoV, the best way to beat the Wallabies is in the forwards.
WOAH! Mind-blowing eh? Well, just think about it for a second, it's nothing new,
but look at where teams have played well against them in the last two games.
They're piss weak around the fringes of breakdowns. When we put on "hammer"
style drives, we generally picked up a metre or two, and the occasional flying
loosie attacking the fringe always made good yardage in the SA and NZ games.
While you may think Byron looked shite against Australia, Weepu was no marked
improvement and Kelleher was sniping in all the wrong places. A player like
Kelleher will be a great asset against Aus for the second time, I reckon a
speedy little wrecking ball like him will be able to exploit that weak fringe
defence a good number of times.
It's possible that Australia's fringe defence has been weak because they've been
wary of NZ/SA outside backs. So I reckon we should stack the team with our
flying Fijians against them again, see if we can stretch that solid line of
defence and open a few holes at ruck time.
Alot easier to keep possession too when the ball stays with the forwards for
extended periods.
Just my 2 cents. Rather out of context with SA
this weekend.
But I shall comment on the upcoming game anyway, our weakness last game will
become our strength. Be prepared to see Toeava and McAlister both have huge
games, marking a slightly unstable and untried combination of Olivier (who I
rate - essentially a clone of Conrad Smith playing in one position. May be
better at Centre?) and that other guy (was it Murray?) who's defence seems quite
solid.
Carter will have a good one too, especially if he's marking Hougaard. Peter
Grant is underrated. I reckon he's a gun.
ALSO another random thought - if McAlister goes
away for two years or so as rumoured (unlikely)... That takes Mauger and
McAlister out of the game and probably forces the 12. Toeava 13. Conrad
combination... which I reckon would be good if Toeava can handle 12 with aplomb
after a big test season this year... and make his boot more consistant!
(AND A TRI NATIONS XV based on the
most CURRENT form, Just because I only drop in occasionally and I do enjoy a
rant)!
1. Woodcock 2. Oliver 3. Hayman 4. Vicks 5. Jack
6. Collins (though I'm sure there's some northerner playing better... the 6s in
the 3N have all been pretty average.) 7. McAwe 8. So'oialo (Would
say Spies if he was playing currently... not taking anything away from So'oialo.
Palu is overrated and Hoiles is a poor man's So'oialo) 9. Gregan (Another
contentious spot. Whine about it all you want. Kelleher v SA was good, Kelleher
v AUS was average. Gregan v NZ was good, Gregan v SA was average. Giving it to
Gregan for sentimental value.
)
10. Larkham (The "Current" form tag must apply. Larkham's playing well, best
I've seen him in a couple years.) 11. Sivivatu 12. Giteau 13.
Mortlock 14. Rokocoko 15. Mils (Uhh.... Leon MacDonald has had the
best singular performance of the FBs so far I think... and he only had about 20
mins! But really a nondescript position with Mils below par, Latham injured and
Percy left behind).
the 2nd XV
1. DUNNING! 2. Botha 3. (Insert SAFFA here) 4. Ackermann (I
love this brute) 5. Sharpe 6. R Elsom (Though I'd put Hoiles here on
form - he wasn't playing 6) 7. G Smith 8. Skinstad 9. Kelleher
10. Carter 11. Tuqiri 12. McAlister 13. Toeava 14.
Paulse 15. (Again, nondescript at the moment. No idea).
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