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Are we done slashing our collective wrists over
the All Blacks' dismal showing in Sydney? Of course, we could quite easily clog
these boards for the next five days with gloomy ruminations about the end of
life on earth as we know it. But believe it or not, there are some positives to
take out of last Saturday's match and, hopefully, the seeds of an almighty
‘blacklash’ at Eden Park.
1 - Talent: Some of the more experienced heads
in the All Black line-up - Dan Carter, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Mils Muilana, Andrew
Hore - showed enough class and form in Sydney to suggest we have the firepower
to beat this Wallabies side if we convert that individual effort to a team
effort and play smarter (or least not brain dead) football.
2 - Setpieces: Even with the loss of the likes
of Hayman, Oliver and Jack, our scrum is still one that the rest of the rugby
world would kill for. We won two tightheads last Saturday. And our much maligned
lineout for the most part performed adequately, which is enough. So put away the
razor blades there.
3 - Possession: The All Blacks had more than 60
per cent of it last Saturday, 70 per cent in the first half. If they actually
hold onto the ball this time, they will be a step ahead. Just eliminating little
mistakes could make a huge difference. (We’ve already eliminated one BIG mistake
with Lauaki off to rugby Siberia, of which more below).
4 - Game plans: We have learnt from the
experience of Sydney. Unless Henry, Hansen and Smith have a death wish or aspire
to coach the Canes, surely they will not make the mistake of playing into the
Wallabies' hands by adopting a sevens-style approach of running it from
everywhere and under-committing to the breakdown.
5 - Key Men Return: We have back the elite
services of Richie McCaw and Leon Macdonald - McCaw for his experience, his
leadership, his tactical nous and his ability to snaffle ball at the breakdown.
The ever smart Macdonald will add a much needed second boot, so we are not
forever trying to run it from our 22. This can’t hurt.
6 – The Right Men in the Right Place: The
pointless tinkering appears to be over for now - Rodney So’oialo is back in his
rightful place at the back of the scrum, Conrad Smith is back at centre and the
pugnacious Piri Weepu is back from Weight Watchers. He’ll at least provide a bit
of ‘don’t argue’ around the paddock.
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7 - Opposition Fatigue: This is the Wallabies'
third tough test on the trot and they are coming off a high. We saw what
happened to the Boks in Perth when, after two brutal encounters in NZ for one
loss and one come-from-behind victory, they ran out off puff against an
up-for-it Wallabies side. The ever-wily Robbie Deans will be counselling his
players against complacency, but human nature (or is it a vain hope?) suggests
they will struggle to perform at the same level they did in Sydney.
8 - Home Advantage: For a team sponsored by an
airline, the Qantas Wallabies' away record is not a proud one. They have a
reputation for pleasing the crowds and sponsors at home, but often fail to
follow through when they leave the security of Sydney and Brisbane. And there
may be just a few more Kiwi supporters at Eden Park than at ANZ stadium. Let’s
hope they’re good and noisy. Bugger the jolly swagmen and their putrid
billabongs.
9 - The Lauaki Factor: The Wallabies' man of
the match in Sydney, Sione Lauaki, will not be playing this Saturday. There’s
about 15 points alone in our favour. The Australians already are building a
monument at ANZ stadium in his memory.
10 - Motive: That our backs are to the wall is
a virtue, or it should be. If we lose this one, the Tri-Nations is gone, the
Bledisloe will be all but gone and Henry, Hansen and Smith will be perusing the
Situations Vacant on Sunday. We have already lost a 10-year unbeaten-at-home
record to the Springboks this competition and broken a 30-day home winning
streak. Do we now really want to let the Wallabies break a 22-year drought of
winning at Eden Park? If this is not incentive to win, I don't know what is.
And the supplementary reason to be cheerful…
Belief: Despite all the doom and gloom in
the media, which feeds on that stuff, this All Black side still has three or
four players that would walk into a World 15. They showed just a month ago
against the Boks in Wellington that they can play a muscular-but-smart,
high-octane and highly skilled game. They fell off the pace in Dunedin with a
lapse of concentration towards the end, while the problems in Sydney were
compounded by a disrupted loose forward combination, a duff game plan, dumb
substitutions and a Wallaby team who appeared to want victory more.
The All Blacks must believe they can win this
return match at Eden Park. They have the talent, they have the set piece
strength, they have home advantage, they have their key men returning and in the
right positions, and they have a point to make. If they minimise their errors,
convert opportunities with strong support play, vary their play, contest rucks,
and put the Wallabies under intense pressure at the breakdown (as Australia did
to them in Sydney), they should win. They MUST win.
So put the razor blades on ice, at least until
next week.
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