I'm not fearful about the All Blacks ability to attack the Irish: there are plenty of attacking weapons in the AB team.

My concern is over our defence.

Sivivatu isn't the greatest at cover defence, Tuitavake is untested at this level, and if the Irish attack shrewdly, draw and pass and use kicks to get around our slowish midfield, then things may get interesting. New combinations always take a while to settle in defensively- it's all about trust and positioning which is very hard to coordinate in your first hit out (especially with 10 changes or whatever). I am glad the Cartel have gone with established Super 14 combos primarily as it is hard to get everything sorted in a week.

If the Irish show up to play, and passes stick on the night, I would expect to see a few tries by either team. Of course, this would go contrary to the trend of the RWC where defences dominated, but this ain't the end of a 4 year cycle.

The other thing that strikes me about these All Blacks is that it appears to be a squad selected specifically for the ELVs (perhaps the first team ever assembled especially for the new laws). This means we have light fast units all over the park, but as this test is not an ELV match, we can't pull down any mauls and will have to match lineout numbers and there won't be constant free kicks allowing us to run the Irish off their feet.

Consequently, the Irish should try and keep it tight, exhaust us with the pick and drive, test our fringe defence, and if O'Gara kicks as well in play as we know he can (one of the best in the world at touch finding I reckon), then they have a real chance.

If the game gets loose with plenty of broken play we should be able to carve them up.

I'd expect us to win (hell we weren't pushovers for the last four years and were only ever beaten through attack from turnovers) but would be surprised if we destroy them. In fact, thinking about the fact that we were only ever beaten from attacks from turnovers (intercepts, and at the breakdown), it does make me wonder if our penchant for risky passing play could undo us again... I'd feel much more comfortable if we only really open up the high-risk attack once we've got a lead... but if the Irish get out in front, the very same high-risk play can be the way to reclaim the lead!