The waiting is over, the international rugby seasons starts, for New Zealand, this weekend.  The Boers and the Convicts kicked it off last weekend, with their exciting clash in the Republic.  But really, while a decent match to watch, who cared who won or lost?

I think the result was perfect from a Kiwi fans point of view, as it shout down the Bokke supporters (or rather, journalists) who were etching their name on the RWC and 3N cup already, while not giving out convict neighbours too much to crow about, as after all, a loss is a loss is a loss, no matter how close you get - and a crowing Aussie is a hard burden for a Kiwi to carry!

Regardless, that was then, and this is now.   As Phooey said on the forum, the longest week of the year is now over (I think the weeks between the knock out games at the RWC are going to be long too, but no looking ahead, this is now, and that is soon), and we are ready to do battle against my favourite enemy, the Steroid Brutes!

While injury and having babies (FFS, parental leave, what next, crying and handbag fights) have depleted the All Blacks of their top five locks, and a winger, the Boers have also injury problems of their own, they have lost their captain and hooker, one of their starting props, and two of their back-rowers from the Wobbly test.

So throw the excuse book out fans - both sides have troubles on the personal front, and perhaps the Boer ones are worse - no units have been wrecked for the All Blacks really - loose trio still intact, front row still intact, backline still intact.  Boers, new players all round, so one up here for the All Blacks, despite having the first five choices for lock benched.

For the Boers, the injury to Spies might be a good thing, as it brings on Bobby Skinstad to play, and his leadership will be invaluable, especially with Victor Matfield leading the side for the first time in a test - a veteran player, but doubts still linger over his leadership pedigree.  So having the comeback kid Skinstad back on deck a good thing.

All these plonkers, including the Springbok coach, Nick White, saying that Super 14 form give the Boers an edge for this test.  These would be the same players and coaching staffs that in the past, when the Boers came as close to semi finals and finals as you and me (watching it on TV), have said that Super form counts for nothing in the test arena - make your minds up please. 

Test not at altitude a good thing for the All Blacks, and in Durban, a more English part of Boerland than many other test venues helping make the All Blacks feel at home, and meaning we won't suffer from that dreaded altitude myth!

All things considered, while neither team fielding their ultimate XV, the sides are handicapped about equally, meaning the only advantage left is an oldy, but a goody.  Home ground advantage for the Bokke.  So perhaps a slight edge for the Boer, but grasping at straws to be fair.

Now the underdog status has been claimed by no one, whose going to win - who will have advantages and where?

In the tight exchanges - I think a dead heat here, the Boers might be a bit stronger on their driving play (please ref the truck and trailer here), but the All Blacks close order passing game has been pretty to watch so far this season - something we have not seen from the Boers as much.  Meaning, once again, advantage, no one.

Scrum time will be a good old battle, but I think our fatties up front will be better than theirs in this aspect of the game.  Both teams will get the nudge on at times, but I think it will be 'our time' more often.  So slight advantage here to the Men in Black.

Lineouts, well, the All Black's over the last few years cannot even begin to claim to be even half proficient at this aspect of the game, and with our top five leapers out of the game, that will leave us a little exposed, but really, we are always a little exposed here!  So advantage Boers, but no more than usual!

The loose trios, the All Blacks the best in the world, but they may be made to work slightly harder helping to stem the tide of the Boer tighties, so while usually there would be an advantage to the All Blacks here, perhaps this time, no real advantage either way – two very good trios.

The backlines, well, I think the All Blacks have it all over the Boers, except for maybe the centres, where the rookie pairing of Toeava and Mauger hold court.  If ever there was a time to prove doubters wrong – this is it, for Toeava to prove that he is a centre of test quality, and Mauger to prove that he is still better than Lucky Luke on the bench.

The outside backs, our back three is lethal, lacking the kicking game of MacDonald this week, but kicking for the Bokke will have to be accurate to stop the brown brothers tearing them a new arse each time they come back.

Mind you, with the All Black line out looking so shaky, they won’t be afraid of kicking for touch, knowing that they will be able to pinch a few balls off the Blacks during the game, killing two birds with one stone – getting possession, and not giving free reign to our back three to launch counter attacks.

Backline then, advantage All Blacks, by a slim margin again.

Advantage count then, two each.  The All Black scrum and backline versus the Boer lineout and home ground, how the hell does that help one try and come up with an educated guess the result?  It bloody doesn’t.

Well, will have to resort to gut feeling then, which is about as accurate as an Anton Oliver throw to six…

All Blacks to win, holding on for grim death at the end, after starting the game on fire, looking like they are going to tear strips off the Boers.  They’ll get a handy lead – two tries sort of thing, before the Boers, in the final 20 minutes start getting some rhythm into their game.  They will then start pegging the game back by threes, and with a man in the bin at the end, the All Blacks will hold on by between 1-6 points.

Maybe.

Past results at Durban.
2002: NZ 30   SA 23
1998: SA 24   NZ 23 - can't remember that one...
1996: NZ 23   SA 19 - now THAT was a game!
1976: SA 16   NZ 7
1949: SA 9   NZ 3
1928: South Africa 17 New Zealand 0

All Blacks:  15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 13 Isaia Toeava, 12 Aaron Mauger, 11 Joe Rokocoko, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Byron Kelleher, 8 Rodney So'oialo, 7 Riche McCaw (c), 6 Jerry Collins, 5 Troy Flavell, 4 Greg Rawlinson, 3 Carl Hayman, 2 Anton Oliver, 1 Carl Hayman.
Subs:  16 Kevin Mealamu, 17 Neemia Tialata, 18 Ross Filipo, 19 Chris Masoe, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Luke McAlister, 22 Leon MacDonald.

Springboks:  15 Percy Montgomery, 14 Ashwin Willemse, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 JP Pietersen, 10 Butch James, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Bob Skinstad, 7 Danie Rossouw, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Victor Matfield (c), 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 BJ Botha, 2 Gary Botha, 1 Os du Randt.
Subs: 16 Bismarck du Plessis, 17 CJ van der Linde, 18 Johann Muller, 19 Pedrie Wannenburg, 20 Michael Claassens, 21 Wynand Olivier, 22 Frans Steyn.