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Once more unto the breach - England's World Cup chances Print E-mail
Written by Fonzie   
Sunday, 05 August 2007

Just gets more and more relevant as the RWC rolls on...  If you haven't read this, first published 27 June, than do do!!

I must admit, during and after reading Chris Rattue’s recent article in the New Zealand Herald, I had a little chuckle.  A very entertaining piece, that should be taken in the spirit it was intended – after all there was not much to write about in New Zealand at that time pre Tri Nations.

The unsuspecting New Zealand public should not be lured into a false sense of compliancy in regards to England’s chances in the upcoming World Cup.  On the surface I admit things don’t look good for the men in white.  However, I think the English management are finally going to get a couple of things right.

First, they are about to get their top team on the field for about the first time in three years.  Secondly, their potential starting XV are very well rested and “conditioned”.  Lastly, they are going to get their tactics correct.  That is, a game based on power which shouldn’t get confused for explosiveness.  Tactics will be broken down into field position, maintaining possession and forcing the opposition into doing things they don’t want to on attack.

Brian Ashton has admirably tried to develop a running, high paced skill game, but sadly the players to deliver that game are not quite ready.  Therefore, reality has set in and they will pick a game to suit the players available to them.

Their top team will likely include a few chaps on the other side of 30 – but so what.  New Zealanders seem to thing that once you hit 30 then it is time to retire.

Martin Johnson, Neil Back, Lawrence Dallaglio, Mike Catt, and Richard Hill proved that wrong four years ago.  If anybody saw Simon Shaw’s performance in the Heineken Cup final, they would understand that been 33 does not mean you are ready to collect your pensioners bus pass.

A tight five of Andrew Sheridan, Mark Regan, Phil Vickery, Shaw and probably Ben Kay will give them a group to match New Zealand and South Africa, not only physically in the scrums and lineouts but beat them in all the little things that experience brings.  A back row of Joe Worsley, Tom Rees and Dallaglio would probably give them the best back row defensive formation in the world.

In the backline I suspect Shaun Perry fits the bill for the job description of playing his forwards into the game as he did so well for Bristol this season.  The midfield could be any combination of Charlie Hodgson, Johnny Wilkinson, Andy Farrell, Mike Tindall and Josh Lewsey.  England may use the rush defense favoured by Wasps and with the group above one would have to admit not too many attackers would penetrate that.  A back three of Mark Cueto, Paul Sackey and Jason Robinson offer speed for counter attacking and in Robinson, a world class player.

England have three hit out games and this is probably the right amount for this team and the style they are likely to employ.  The England team have currently just had a month off, and will spend the next two planning, training and playing their warm up games with no distractions.

The Tri Nations will leave those sides a few players short after injuries and what will the mental fatigue be like?  Speaking of the mental side of the game can you honestly tell me Victor Matfield, De wet Barry, Chris Jack, Carl Hayman and all the others staying in the United Kingdom after the World Cup won’t have other things on their mind?  I mean the little things like the wife ringing up every second day to argue about whether to buy a four bed room house or five.  So which group of players will be more focussed?  Which group of players have been ridiculed more and written off more?

England’s tactics will be to try to suffocate the opposition and apply massive pressure.  We have all seen it in games across various levels.  The scenario being 30 minutes has gone in the South Africa v England game and it is 13 to 6 to England.  All of sudden panic starts to enter the Boks, players try too hard and things just escalate.  All coaches know that if a team enters a game slightly over confident then whatever you say at half time is not going to work nine times out of 10.

So yes expect an intelligent kicking game from 10 and 12.  Expect plenty of drives and pick -and-go’s.  Expect a lightening kick chase game.  Expect England to defend like maniacs.  Basically England will throw the kitchen sink and take some calculated gambles, like the rush defence.  I think they will go for a power game, and if you like a ‘keep the scores down’ policy in order to be there or there about in the last 15 minutes, and frustrate the opposition.  They won’t want the game to become a glorified game of sevens - that that would spell disaster for the type of the players they will select.

Keeping in line with that I would go a five / two reserve split.  How are they going to score points?  Through Hodgson and Wilkinson’s boot, through moments of brilliance from Rees and Robinson, through power tries from drives and some well constructed plays from set pieces. 

If the older players falter and if the players back from long term injury break down then so be it – at least England will go down fighting.  Which is giving them more of chance then it has recently?  Yes, they have guys perhaps going one campaign too far – but what if its not?  The above starting XV have 10 players with a World Cup winner’s medal – how many do New Zealand, France and South Africa have?

I am not saying England will win the 2011 World Cup, but don't write them off yet.

Fonzie is a New Zealander currently coaching in the England.

 
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