It is trendy in the week following a Test loss to start threads about why the AB’s aren’t going to win this World Cup or any other. So I’ve deliberately waited a week to vent a little and try and get a point across. Some of you may have noticed that I’ve been fairly pessimistic about the prospects for the RWC for a long time – constantly downplaying our chances, suggesting what I’ll do when we lose, talking about our likely 3rd/4th playoff opponents, and just generally being a prophet of doom.

Part of this is personal: it’s a little mental conditioning to prepare myself for another RWC because the last 4 have really hurt this NZ rugby fan. That sick feeling after the side has been knocked out of contention for the RWC are among the very worst emotions I’ve ever encountered. In fact they are among the low points of my life so far (worse than being mugged at knifepoint in Madrid).

Here is my reasoning for why I am so down cast about our RWC prospects this time around:

We have shortages of quality in some of our most important positions. Flyhalf is the most important position on the field IMHO, followed by Openside, Halfback, Fullback and then the Front Row. Our depth at Flyhalf is something I’m comfy with, but we have daylight to our next Openside beyond McCaw. I’ve never rated Byron Kelleher and never will, but I still don’t see a NZ halfback who really impresses me as being razor sharp – like Du Preez, Gregan or Pienaar. Brendan Leonard comes closest. The reason why Luke MacAlister was playing at Centre last Saturday was not because of our lack of depth at Centre – it was because of our lack of depth at Fullback. Of the 30 man 3N squad, the back-up Fullback behind Mils & Leon is Doug Howlett. Shit time to be on paternity leave in some ways, but it was that and Leon going lame that led to MacAllister being played at Centre and that shouldn’t be forgotten.

So we are just as vulnerable now as we have ever been to injuries IMHO – and that despite the rotation policy.

The side is open to criticism that they have peaked between World Cups again. On recent evidence, that is exactly what has happened though comfort can be taken from the fact the AB’s of recent vintage have played their best rugby on the EOYT’s and that is effectively what the 2007 RWC is. Let’s not forget that the AB’s were rough early on in 2006 but improved with every passing week.

The other concern is that the pressure on these guys is too much. Yes it’s important to us but the expectation and burden on this team is overwhelming and I don’t think the guys are enjoying their rugby. As the RWC edges closer, the pressure builds further and I don’t think Dan Carter is enjoying his rugby at all. Looking at past footage, here was a guy who smiled and was visibly relaxed and having fun and ran with the ball in that manner. At the moment he looks as though he hates it and that has to change for him to play his best rugby. A lot of sporting teams play under weight of expectation, but what this side faces going in to this Cup is especially intense and I think it’s going to restrict their play because it will open up a fear of losing. Kiwi’s are a laid back bunch by and large, we’re generally quite low key so for our guys to have this massive load of national emotional baggage lumped on their shoulders is a concern and I think it will be the undoing.

Don’t get me wrong, I desperately want to see the side win, and there is ample evidence to suggest they can – but the task facing this team is huge and we will only have ourselves to blame if they fail.