|
Written by PaarlBok
|
|
Wednesday, 21 March 2007 |
We meet the half way stage of the S14 and still
plenty of rugby to be play. From round 8 we have full Kiwi sides and now the
real fun begin. The success rate for the Saffer tours down under is a high 60%.
The Stormers, Bulls and Lions have all 2 winnings down under with one to go for
the Stormers and the Bulls. The Stormers have the impossible Saders game but we
will see if the Bulls can climb another block against the Clan. Between the
three the Stormers so far the only one that taste Kiwi success. Even if the
Bulls and Stormers loose in round 8 s till a satisfied 50% success rate. Then
its left to the Sharks and Cheetahs to keep it up.
Looking at the positions on the log this success is showing. The Aus duo
of the Tahs and Reds on the bottom and all the Saffers side stil in the run.
This may change from week to week but as long as there is a change there is hope
and everything to play for. A Important fact in S14 history is that when a
team’s change of making the semi’s end that team change their stragety to try
and built the team for the next year and they keep dropping even home games.
According to my calculations a team need at least 36 points to qualify for the
semis.
What needs to happen for each Saffer side to keep
alive?
The Sharks are nearly in the semis. To get there they need two more wins
and for a possible home semi, three. They have to beat the Brumbies this week
and they can target the Reds game in round 10. To get the extra one they have
the away, but not so far away Lions in round 13 or/and Stormers in round 14.
Their benefit will be that the Lions and Stormers will know there faith in those
last two rounds. If they can pick the Lions and Stormers they should be heading
for a possible top place. All in their own hands really.
The other three sides have some steep ladder to climb.
The Bulls, Lions and Cheetahs need four and the Stormers five wins.
The Bulls need four wins to get there. First they have to win all their
home games against the Stormers, Blues (this one will be good as double points)
and Reds. Then they need one more away win and the Lions one look a possibility.
They can also do themselves a big favour if they can beat the Clan this weekend
or maybe try to get the Hurricanes one the following weekend. We will see if
this Bulls side can show character and pick up after the Crusaders beating.
Even dropping the next two games they will stay in touch but they will need to
bag the homegames.
The Lions homegames start this weekend and they have to win them all. It’s
the Hurricanes, Brumbies, Bulls and Cheetahs. They also have two away games in
the Stormers and Sharks. Pretty much makeable. This weekend against the
Hurricanes will start their faith and the perfect change to stand up and get
back on the winning ways. A little bit of an easier homerun then the Bulls.
The Cheetahs haven’t do themselves any favours in dropping crucial
homegames and have the difficult task of trying to win on the road. They have
the impossible task and try to get four out of six away against the likes of the
Clan, Blues, Hurricanes, Reds, Force and Lions. Mission impossible. They can do
the other Saffer teams big favours if they can topple some top opposition in the
process.
The Stormers have it a bit easier but still a very daunting task. Home
games against the Lions, Blues (double points), Reds and Sharks (triple points)
and one away one against the Saders or Bulls. The way I know the Stormers they
will win against top opposition but will drop the Red game at home in the
process. A nearly impossible route for them.
My rating at this stage is Crusaders, Sharks and Blues in the three top
places. For the fourth spot it will be a race between Chiefs/Force/Bulls/Lions.
|
![1223med[1].jpg](http://www.thesilverfern.com/images/abs_157/1223med[1].jpg)
