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Written by Londoner
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Wednesday, 05 March 2008 |
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I thought this might be interesting. No-one seems to be putting the round by
round stats up anymore. I've had big trouble finding statistics on the S14 (why
isn't there a S14 website?), but found some interesting things about tries
scored. Sorry that tries scored is a very crude approach to analysing games,
but its all I could get my hands on for the mo!
1) Way more tries after 3 rounds than last year! 73 last year compared to
100 this season, that's a whooping 40% increase. However, the caveat should be
mentioned that the results last year were skewed by the disruption to the kiwi
teams. Only the chiefs have scored less tries this year than last after 3
rounds (7 versus 8) and overall the kiwi teams have scored 17 more tries in 3
rounds than they did last year which is the majority of the increase right
there. If you throw in the bizarre statistical outlier of the Brumbies only
having scored 2(!!!) tries in 3 rounds in 2007, which is way way lower than
their usual scoring rate, then having the ABs back and the Brumbies scoring at
roughly their usual rate (9 in 3 games this year similar to the 8 in 3 in 2006)
gives you 24 out of the 27 extra tries.
2) OK, so if a comparison with the early rounds last year is biased then
I'll try a better like-for-like comparison between 2006 and 2008 i.e. comparing
non-RWC cup years. Again this year is up after 3 rounds 100 vs 85 (18%
increase). The interest here is that the difference is accounted for
entirely by the Blues and the Crusaders. If you remove the tries from these
two teams from the log then its 69 tries exactly after 3 rounds in both years.
In fact no two teams have ever been so responsible for the percentage of
tries scored after 3 rounds in the S14. 31% of all the tries scored this year
have been from just two teams! The third most prevalent try scorer
(Cheetahs/Brumbies joint on 9) have half the number of tries as the leading try
scorer the Blues.
3) This fits the picture that apart from the high quality of the Blues and
Crusaders games, which are universally admired by even those who, like me, have
reservations over some of the ELVs there has been more kicking in-field.
My point being that ball in play time has increased by at least 10% according to
any of the stats I've seen on other rounds but the numbers of tries being scored
are not being inflated which suggests that the extra play is largely not
increasing the attacking content of the game - in the games not involving the
elite teams. This is the point made by Dodge many many times on the forum!
In general, the tries scored statistic is showing that whilst the Blues are
joint record holders of number of tries after 3 rounds with 18, you also have
teams like the Bulls (2 scored) and the Stormers (1 scored) who are having big
problems crossing the line. There are more tries but the try scoring is more
sharply peaked towards fewer teams. Your interpretation of these results (bar
the obvious point about limited data sets) should be based on how much
importance you attach to tries as a reflection of entertainment/quality and to
what extent you find the narrower distribution of scoring teams a bad thing.
Not to mention how you think this will pan out in time - will more teams play
like the Blues and Crusaders?
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