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Super 14 - Midway Review Print E-mail
Written by LAKiwi   
Wednesday, 21 March 2007

So here's the table after midway. 7 rounds played, 7 left. Just showing games played and total points. Teams Left To Play shows the games left in order (including byes) - with the games in bold being home games for the team.

Team Games
Played   		 Points
To Date  		Teams Left To Play
Sharks 6 25 Brumbies, Force, Reds, Blues, Chiefs, Lions, Stormers
Blues 6 23 Warratahs, Chiefs, Cheetahs, Sharks, Stormers, Bulls, Force 
Force 7 21 Bye, Sharks, Crusaders, Chiefs, Brumbies, Cheetahs, Blues
Bulls 7 18 Highlanders, Hurricanes, Bye, Stormers, Lions, Blues, Reds
Crusaders 6 17 Stormers, Waratahs, Force, Highlanders, Hurricanes, Brumbies, Chiefs     
Cheetahs 7 17 Bye, Highlanders, Blues, Hurricanes, Reds, Force, Lions
Highlanders    6 16 Bulls, Cheetahs, Chiefs, Crusaders, Waratahs, Hurricanes, Brumbies
Lions 7 16 Hurricanes, Brumbies, Stormers, Bye, Bulls, Sharks, Cheetahs
Brumbies 7 14 Sharks, Lions, Brumbies, Bye, Force, Crusaders, Highlanders
Hurricanes 7 14 Lions, Bulls, Bye, Cheetahs, Crusaders, Highlanders, Waratahs
Stormers 7 14 Crusaders, Bye, Lions, Bulls, Blues, Reds, Sharks
Chiefs 6 12 Reds, Blues, Highlanders, Force, Sharks, Waratahs, Crusaders
Waratahs 6 8 Blues, Crusaders, Brumbies, Reds, Highlanders, Chiefs, Hurricanes
Reds 7 6 Chiefs, Bye, Sharks, Waratahs, Cheetahs, Stormers, Bulls
Always hard to work out how you would rate teams - with still so many games to go - but I've taken a shot at it. To me, its important about home games (more so for the South African sides - although I've done no weighting here). So teams with still their long road stretches left should be disadvantaged. So I've given each team with a home game a point for each round.

Additionally playing those in the top four teams (at the moment the Sharks, Blues, Force and Bulls) should be a disadvantage (less 1 point) and playing teams in the bottom four (at the moment Stormers, Chiefs, Waratahs and the Reds) should be an advantage (plus 1 point).

So here's my half time summary!
 
Team Home
Games  		Top
Four   		 Bottom
Four   		 Total
Points 		Comments 
Sharks +2 -2 +3 +3 Only 2 home games, but play 3 of the bottom teams. Expect to still be towards the top
Blues +3 -3 +3 +3 3 home games, play all other 3 top teams and 3 bottom teams. Expect to still be towards the top, if not the top
Force +3 -2 +1 +2 3 home games (and a bye), play 2 of the other top teams and only 1 of the bottom. Expect to just slip out of the top 4
Bulls +3 -1 +2 +4 3 home games and a bye, play one other top team and two of the bottom teams. Easier run in than the force, but expect them to just miss out from the top four
Crusaders +4 -1 +3 +6 4 home games, only play 1 of the top teams and 3 of the bottom. Will be in the Top 4 come the end
Cheetahs - -2 +1 -1 No Home games and the bye, play 2 of the top teams and 1 of the bottom teams. Will start to fade away
Highlanders    +5 -1 +2 +6 5 home games left (the most), 1 top team and 2 bottom teams to face. One of the easier runs to the end, but will just miss out
Lions +4 -2 +1 +3 4 homes games but still the bye, playing 2 top teams and only 1 bottom. Will not move much from where they are
Brumbies +2 -2 - - Only 2 home games and still the bye to go, playing 2 top teams and no bottom teams. Would not be surprised to see them fall more
Hurricanes +4 -1 +1 +4 4 hour games but still the bye, play 1 each of the bottom and top teams. They have a great chance to move up, since they're playing all their middle table oppostion
Stormers +4 -3 +1 +2 4 home games, but the bye to go, playing 3 top teams and only 1 of the other bottom teams. Will drop (but no as far as the Reds
Chiefs +3 -2 +2 +3 3 home games, playing 2 of the top teams and all of the other 3 bottom teams. Will climb to nearer the middle of the competition
Waratahs +4 -1 +2 +5 4 home games, playing 1 of the top teams and two of the other bottom teams. Not enough to climb out of the bottom 4
Reds +3 -1 +3 +5 3 home games and the bye to go, playing 1 top team and all of the other 3 bottom teams. Will be last

Crusaders and Highlanders look to have the better runs in and they should be able to move up the table. The Warratahs and the Reds also have a good total ranking (as far as games left) - but they're so far out of it (and hopeless, this won't help them). Cheetahs, Brumbies, Force and Stormers (in that order) have the harder runs in - so expect them to start dropping down the ladder.

So after half of the competition, I'm picking Blues, Sharks to stay in the top 4, with the Crusaders to join them. Other team in the semis is between the Highlanders and the Bulls. How does that sound?
 
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