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Super 14 Preview - NSW Waratahs |
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Written by Lee Grant
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Tuesday, 16 January 2007 |
 The Waratahs have received some unexpected body blows. The world-class Dan Vickerman is out for the season; Mat Rogers has been released from his contract and David Lyons is out for a while. Of course, Wendell Sailor, who I rate as a S14 player, is no more.
Changes
Gains:
Valentine is the only new player likely to start.
| Josh Valentine |
Queensland Reds |
| Beau Robinson |
NSW Academy |
| Ben Hand |
NSW Academy |
| Lachlan Turner |
NSW Academy |
| Kurtley Beale |
NSW Academy |
| Jeremy Tilse |
NSW Academy |
| Al Manning |
NSW Academy |
| Beau Robinson |
NSW Academy |
| Tim Davidson |
Western Force |
Losses:
The losses are far bigger than the gains. Vickerman, in particular, is a huge loss.
| Shaun Berne |
Bath |
| Wendell Sailor |
Punted |
| Dan Vickerman |
Injured; out for S14 season |
| Mat Rogers |
Gold Coast Titans - NRL |
| Stephen Hoiles |
Brumbies |
| Chris Whitaker |
Leinster |
| Troy Takiari |
Western Force |
| Leroy Houston |
Break from rugby |
| Tim Donnelly |
Cut - Brive |
| Marty Wilson |
Rookie contract not upgraded |
| Winston Mafi |
Cut |
Strengths
Versatility of the backline - With the above losses the backline will be in transition for a year or two until their 3 teenage stars get up to speed. However NSW will be able to paper over the cracks after losing 3 international backs better than most teams.
Coaching and front office – In the past even the casual fan knew that NSW was a basket case and you could see the effect on the park. Now that has gone full circle. Coach McKenzie, a hard, no bullshit man, is a major part of that, but he is not the only one. There is quality all around the joint these days. Does it make a difference on the park? Ask the Crusaders fans, and conversely, ask the Blues fans also.
Scrumhalf depth – The best in Oz despite losing Whitaker. Valentine will probably start with Sheehan getting more time than when Whitaker ran on. Next, there is Josh Holmes, the IRB U/19 player of the year.
Weaknesses
Not enough specialist backs – The other side of having versatility is the bugbear of players not knowing what to do instinctively in a new position, and especially on defence.
Second row – Kanaar and Caldwell will do well enough in the lineouts by most Oz teams’ standards, but in losing Harrison for last year and Vickerman for this, NSW will relinquish an edge it has had for a few years now.
Game-breakers – the Rogers’ X-factor will be missed, big-time, at the S14 level.
Backrow depth – with Lyons injured now, Hoiles gone to the ACT and young Houston having a holiday, the usually impressive Waratah backrow depth is very skinny.
Not enough aggression – They were the least penalised team in the S14 last year, partly because they were too nice in the contests. I’d rather see them pushing the envelope more; like the Hurricanes using the crowbars.
Rustiness- Many of the Waratahs were Wallabies on the EOYT and so were constrained from doing early S14 training, nor can they play in both trial matches. They will be over-training to get fitness back so they will have some leg-weariness in the first few games.
Draw
Tough: They start with 3 games in the RSA. It will be good to have a bye when they come back but it’s very early in the piece. It would have been better to have it later in the comp when there probably will be more injuries that have to be overcome with a weeks’ break. They will be playing all NZ teams at full strength.
Questions
How will they start the season with 3 straight games in the RSA? How will the lineout work without Vickerman? Will hooker TPN get to start in a few games and throw to the lineout OK? Will the versatile backline work together well from Day 1, or will time and points be squandered finding the right combo?
Best team
1. B. Robinson; 2. A. Freier; 3. A. Baxter; 4. W. Caldwell; 5. A. Kanaar; 6. R. Elsom; 7. P. Waugh; 8. W. Palu; 9. J. Valentine; 10. D. Halangahu; 11. L. Tuqiri; 12. S. Harris; 13. M. Turinui; 14. S. Norton-Knight; 15. P. Hewat.
[Harris would not be picked by many, but this is my team.]
Look Out For
Most of the likely starters are well-known but look out for young gunsLachlan Turner and Kurtley Beale if they get on the park. Perversely, Rogers’ disappearance may have long term benefits if these newcomers are advanced before their time. Then if the other teenager, scrummie Josh Holmes, also gets on the park, we might see some teenage runaways.
At last, the mercurial Chris Siale may also get a chance because Rogers has gone.
Also watch out for flyhalf Daniel Halangahu. This is his make or break year. He played well enough in 2006 apart from some defensive lapses towards the end of the season, and a bit of ball-hogging, but with Rogers gone he should get the starting gig for 2007 and give himself the chance to impose himself in the position if he’s good enough.
Prediction
However well they play NSW will be missing 4 internationals and will be flying by the seat of their pants patching things up. Nevertheless, I expect their high expectation and good teamwork to get them through to the finals; just. 4th
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