The Western Force has recruited some good backs but the forwards need to perform better than last year to give them reasonable ball.  Surely they can’t have the same butcher’s bill in the backs as last year but at least they will be better staffed if they do, because they have got rid of a few duds.

Changes

Gains:
Giteau is huge acquisition and though his best position is at 12 he may have to play 10 to get all the talent on the park.  Mitchell is another good buy and look out for Ryan Cross who will probably have to play at outside centre to fit everybody in.  Another good acquisition is prop Troy Takiari.  Somehow they are listing 35 players, which is 2 more than par, but perhaps they have included a couple of Academy players in their list.

Losses: 
There are no significant losses.  Tim Davidson, a reserve 8, was the only player to move on who they wanted to keep, and John Welborn retired.  The remainder were cut - a large number, but it was unavoidable since the WF had to take who was available for 2006.

Strengths
Backline – On paper, the Western Force will have the best backline in Oz rugby if scrummie Henjak pulls his finger out, and there will be few others better in the Super14 in NZ and the RSA either.  But that’s on paper; they have to get a reasonable share of reasonable ball first, and to combine well, second.

Crowd support – Compared to the vanilla Sydney crowd the Perth fans are inspirational.

Weaknesses
Tight Five – Lack of power.  Hookers are OK but the props aren’t much.  Sharpe’s partner in the second row won’t have much of an impact, and Sharpe himself is no dominator either, come to think of it.

Backrow – Not enough mongrel; not enough crowbars getting into the casino passion.  Starting with 18 y.o. David Pocock will help, but will he?

Forward reserves – not much depth by comparison with some other Oz teams, except at hooker and fetcher.

Scrumhalf – I expect Matt Henjak to step up this year and show a bit more than the glimpses he showed in 2006, but if he doesn’t there will be problems.  His back-up, Chris O’Young, showed a few good phases in 2006 but his ability to boss a full game above the amateur club level is unknown.

Team experience – It is difficult for any new sporting franchise to succeed at startup and for a few years afterwards.  I said even before I knew the 4th Oz team would be in Perth that it would take 3-4 years for a new Oz team to make its mark, if it ever did, and it didn’t make any difference what the names of the players and coaches  were. 
Nothing has changed my opinion.  I expect the Force to be better this year than last and better still in 2008. 

Draw
Favourable: they have 7 matches at home this year, mostly against teams that finished in the lower half of the comp last year – and they have just two matches in the RSA.  They play the Highlanders and Hurricanes in the period when certain All Blacks are being rested from matches

Questions
Will the pack play like they did against the Crusaders last year or as they did against a couple of other Kiwi teams?  Will the upgraded, healthy backline get good ball?  Will Henjak step up and play like we know he can?

Best team
1.  G. Hardy; 2. B. Cannon; 3. T. Takiari; 4. N. Sharpe; 5. R. Vedelago; 6. L. Doherty; 7. D. Pocock; 8. S. Fava; 9. M. Henjak; 10. M. Giteau; 11. D. Ioane; 12. S. Staniforth; 13. R. Cross; 14. D. Mitchell; 15. C. Shepherd.

Look Out For
Ryan Cross to shine more than we think, and play above his league pedigree.  Even taking into account a broken leg here or there, many good league judges considered that he should have played SOO.  Scott Staniforth, one of the first chosen on the team sheet, to play the whole season at 12, or at least in the centres, and show his class.

Prediction
It is unlikely that the Force will have to use 14 players new to Super rugby again as they did in 2006 and suffer accordingly.  They will have more nous to win some of the close matches it lost or drew last year against the Stormers, Highlanders, Cats and Crusaders.  Unlike last year, they can withstand a few injuries from 10 up, but won’t want too many absentees below 10. 

If they stay healthy I budget 4-5 wins so they can finish 11th