Does anyone out there remember Gomer Pile?  No, well I don't really either, but I seem to remember him with a line such as "surprise, surprise, surprise", a touch sarcasic when something happened to him that he knew was coming, but hoped this time it wouldn't.  Anyway, when I heard the result of the Chiefs game against the Lions, previosuly with just the single win in this years Super 14, that came straight to my mind, "surprise, surprise, surprise".

Not really though, we should know that the Chiefs are going to cock things up.  They do it year in and year out, and year in and year out we Chiefs fans get all excited, just to fall flat at the last minute.  Losing to the Lions, the LIONS, of all teams to remove themselves from contention for semi finals, well, it can't get much worse than that.  I think JP sums it up most eloquently in his post oin the Chiefs thread in the forum...

Well I got up at 3 to watch the game and was delighted to see the Chiefs come up yet again with a new and unique way to completely stuff up their semi-final hopes.  I thought I'd seen them all but no!!  Here's a dumb-ass pillic Ben May thinking that the ideal time to stomp on some-one's head is when your team is hot on attack after having next to no ball and your 14 points behind!! 

Could not believe that a player could be so utterly mindlessly stupid, I mean stomping on some-one's head is thuggish and dumb at the best of times but to do it in a crucial game to set you up[ for the semi's - when your that far behind - when your set to score a try in the corner that then get's dis-allowed is really tasking it to a new level.  To then reduce your team to 14 men with 15 minutes or so to go against a team that has notoriously tired late in the match to lose games (which they did against the Chiefs) speaks of a complete and utter brain-dead stupidity hitherto the depths idiotic thuggery of which I have not seen on the rugby field since Troy Flavell's head stamp on Greg Smith (which Flavell at least had to good graces to do early in the game - and not when they were just about to score a try) nor I doubt will I ever see such a staggering inability for a player to rub 2 brain cells together or show a tiny semblance of self discipline to not be a complete and utter twat. 

The only faint consolation I can bear unto myself is this after I burn his house down I can then tell him "Well I wasn't looking as I threw that firebomb through your front window - so surely there was no intent - so I shouldn't expect any punishment at all- after all isn't that the same arguement you use on the rugby field??"

So the Chiefs gone again, unless results go there way big time.  How about the rest of the games?  The Crusaders versus Reds game was a cracker I thought, with the Reds defending like men possessed, but unable to hold on once the Crusaders bought on their shock troopers led by Dan Carter.  Down 8-21 when Carter came on, and winning 27-21 20 odd minutes later, with Carter adding two conversions and a try to his personal tally, and directing play like the master first five he is.  It was magic to see him land the sideline conversion to take the score to 22-21, before scoring the final try himself!  It will take a good team to beat this Crusaders outfit when they have their top outfit on the field.

The rest of the weekend, Blues in a pretty average match against the Highlanders, highlight of the match being Craig Newby giving the ref grief in his aftermatch speech, along the lines of, "it felt like we were playing 16 men out there at times"...  Good honest call.  A bit like his saying it like it is about his signing to play in the NH - not going their for the lifestyle, its the money!  If he wanted lifestyle he reckons he'd stay in Dunedin forever (hear that Gats)!!

The Waratahs and Stormers drawing their match an interesting result too, really congesting this weekends race for the final 3 positions on the ladder under the Crusaders.

So lets look at what could happen, and see if we're any closer to my thoughts from a week ago.  I know the Chiefs have fouled things up for me for starters, surprise....

Before last weeks matches I had the top four of Crusaders, Hurricanes, Stormers then Waratahs.

Now we still have the Crusaders home semi (52 points), and theit local derby against the Highlanders, at home, it should be another 5 points on the log.

The Hurricanes (40) are away to the Blues (36).  A solid win here will give them second place, guaranteed with a try bonus point, and pretty much guaranteed on points differential should the Waratahs land a five pointer against the Reds this weekend.

The Waratahs (39), as mentioned above, against the Reds.  A win puts them into the semis, as high as 2nd should other results fall their way.  They probably shouldn't, but the Hurricanes might just do a Chiefs, and lose to the Blue this weekend.

Stormers (37) are away to the last placed Lions.  Despite the Lions win over the Chiefs last weekend, they should be put to the sword, and a five pointer to the Stormers will move them contention for the top four.

Sharks (37) are hosting the Chiefs.  They're looking at five points too, with the Chiefs sending half their squad home injured, and relying on the half coming from New Zealand to be fit enough to play when they arrive, so expect no miracles here!

Blues (36) are hosting the Hurricanes.  They need at least the win, plus bonus points, and other results to go their way.  The first part of that equation could happen, but the second I don't think so.

Chiefs (34).  That'll be their tally I am picking for the season.  34 points, and 7th on the log.  Yet another 'could have been' season.

Sooo, next week, final points will be...

Crusaders 57, Hurricanes 44, Waratahs 44, Stormers 42, Sharks 42.  Stormers getting the last spot on the better points diff. 

However, if the Blues roll the Hurricanes, which is on the cards, then we could see..

Crusaders 57, Waratahs 44, Stormers 42, Sharks 42, the Hurricanes dropping out of the picture altogether!  Although, if they pick up a bonus point, and one or both of the Sharks and Stormers don't, then they will sneak in, Or two bonus points, and they will be safe.

In which case the most like top four will be Crusaders, Waratahs, Hurricanes, and one of the Boer sides, the Sharks or Stormers.

Which mean that I think the Blues will be the Hurricanes then doesn't it!!  The Blues could also sneak in on points differential if neither the Sharks or the Stormers pick up a bonus point, and the Blues do, giving a top four of...

Crusaders, Waratahs, Hurricanes, Blues.

That would be the best looking for New Zealand anyway...!!