Caution: Betting large based on Donsteppa's tips will earn you a bankruptcy conviction.

Tipping the Blues mainly due to home advantage. Will be interesting to see how the Canes tight five goes this year though, they might surprise people...
Don’t know much about the Force, and am picking a big win to the Brumbies!
Ditto the Cheetahs so I’m picking the Bulls – just.
Highlanders: Can’t really overlook the Crusaders…
Going with the ‘Tahs, I think they’ve broken the Queensland drought for good.
No idea so going with home ground advantage!
Going with the Chiefs as they have a strong top 15 and good preseason form to run with.

Hopefully this weeks games will reveal all about the Force and the South African teams for more enlightened picks next week...

 

Blues v Hurricanes in Auckland
Tough game to call, and will probably boil down to the powerful Blues tight five and speedy creative backline versus the 'Canes world-class loosies and hard running backs. The Blues bench and home ground advantage should tip the scales in their favour and I predict a tight 60 with the Blues to take it away in the last 20.

Western Force v Brumbies in Perth (Lions v Christians I)
With the Brumbies at full strength and eager to repair the damage to their reputation suffered in 2005, neither home ground advantage or the undoubted talents of their chrome-domed coach will be sufficient to ward off Gandalf's eager acolytes. Brumbies all the way.

Cheeatahs v Bulls in Bloemfontein
A replay of the Currie Cup final. Despite injuries to the Bulls in various departments, most notably the second row and half-back, the Cheetahs will not spring the same surprise that they did in October last year and the Bulls will win a hard-fought forward contest.

Crusaders v Highlanders in Christchurch (Lions v Christians II)
Despite being notoriously slow starters in the S14, and having lost key personal in the off season, the Crusaders remain the S12 benchmark and I see no reason that this leadership won't continue into S14. They will be tested this season by sides like the Bulls at Loftus, the Waratahs and the Blues but not by the Highlanders. Crusaders from the kick-off and the pain of the NPC semi will become a thing of the past.

Reds v Waratahs in Brisbane (Lions v Christians III)
The once-proud Reds have been stripped of their playing personal by the formation of the Western Force and barring a miracle will fight it out with the also-rans for the wooden spoon this year. The Waratah's, however, look capable of building on their successes of last year and this early season derby can only end in tears for the Queenslanders.

Cats v Stormers in Johannesburg
Tough one to call. Cats have the edge in the tight five, but the Stormers have the loosies. The Cats have Januarie, the Stormers Conradie and both have young 10's, Bok midfielders and pace to burn out wide. Jantjies v Greeff at the back should be absorbing. In addition, both teams are perennial underperformers and risk fighting it out in the relegation zone as the tournament progresses. Cats will shade due to home ground advantage.

Sharks v Chiefs in Durban
The Sharks were dog poo last year but positive rumblings from the camp, some key returns from the sick bay and a few hired guns have given the Sharks an edge they lacked last year. The Chiefs, however, are looking about as good as I have seen them in a while, loaded up with veterans of Headmaster Henry's super-successful slam series (HH'sssss) and will be more than a handful and probably too good for the my beloved Sharks, although the effect of running out in front of 40 thousand feral Sharks fans have upset more than one champion team in the past...

 

Good local clashes this round with Auckland taking on the Canes, in what I believe will be a one-sided affair for the Blues. The McAlister v Umaga clash at second five should be a cracker as well as powerhouses Nick Williams and Jerry Collins. Bulls and Brumbies should be too strong for the new sides Force and Cheetahs. Home advantage will be an important factor in the southern derby, while I'm backing the Chiefs to blow away the Sharks. The Chiefs have a strong lineup this year, and have landed in South Africa early to prepare.

 

Blues defeat Hurricanes - Margin = 9 points
All the talk here seems to be about the Blues tight 5 versus the Hurricanes back row, and I tend to agree. This one could be a grind for 60 minutes before the Blues release their wide weapons ala Rokocoko. Having seen the Blues up close at Gosford where they bombed a crapload of tryscoring opportunities against the Tahs, I think they're still a little rusty (despite hammering new boys the Force) so it will be a close game with Collins, Masoe, and Rodders as well as Weepu doing their best to shut down the Blues in midfield, with Tana haring up on the outside.

Force defeated by Brumbies - Margin = 7 points
Can John Mitchell weld his team into a unit in time for the big opener? I reckon with the forward pack he's likely to take in then anything is possible, except a win first up against the best Aussie side in S12 history. The Brumbies have some stars coming back with little game time under the collective belt, but the class of guys like Larkham should still be evident, and Paul's injury might not have had enough time to settle. But up front I think the Brumbies are going to have trouble with the Force pack, with Mitchell preaching a new defensive alignment to upset a few apple carts. At home in front of a rabid crowd upwards of 30,000 I believe the Force will run them closer than most people think.

Cheetahs defeated by Bulls - Margin = 12 points
This is one of the trickier picks for the week. Some key injuries to the Bulls, the Cheetahs an unknown quantity (but fielding some very good players). But I think the Bulls have better form in the CC overall and despite missing Matfield et al will kick themselves to a handy lead and stay there.

Crusaders defeat Highlanders - Margin = 6 points
The unfancied Clan came on strong through the middle of last season, before losing their last two games and dropping to 8th overall. The ever-shifting sands of NZ's draft system and player poaching movement haven't upset the core of either side too much here, but perhaps the depth of the Crusader's tight 5 could be questioned if Caveman gets to work on some rednblack props and their flunkies. The Crusaders are traditionally slow starters having lost their first round game for a few years now, even with the odd spanking at home. But with the backline another year experienced and the skills of Carter especially shining, I think they'll do enough to pin the kilted ones back in the corners and take the win by a low margin.

Reds defeated by Waratahs - Margin = 5 points
In the Aussie SuperTips team there has been a lot of very brief discussion about this game. The Waratahs have lost some key personnel up front in Harrison and Cannon, while the Reds have some old heads back (Connors, Cordingley) and forwards coach Alec Evans whose status in Australian forward coaching is legendary. The Reds squad forwads have a young look about them, with an average front-row age around 23. However if there is a crusty old bugger you'd want to sort them out, its Evans. The backline for the Reds looks interesting with the proposed selection of youngster Berrick Barnes at flyhalf and a Flatley/Huxley centre combo. Cue the "kick to the corners" plan and put the Tahs lineout under pressure - easily done where Freier is throwing. But I'm backing my lot to bring home the bacon with solid back play and big lads (5-2 reserves bench) running at Barnes, Flats, and Hux all night long.

Cats defeat Stormers - Margin = 8 points
Another one that is up in the air but I'll pick the Cats at home for no other reason than the Stormers always turn up strong on the team sheet, but rarely in the flesh. Its also at Jo'burg where the Cats seem to do well historically.

Sharks defeat Chiefs - Margin = 4 points
The fishies have been written off after some disastrous off-field dramas in the last couple of seasons, but I reckon they'll give Dick Muir some false hope by scraping out a win over the travelling Kiwis who wil be homesick for some P&L. Yes, that's the most scientific reason I can come up with, besides the heat and humidity of a late summer Durban and the distraction of those Sharks cheerleaders! Yeah baby.

 

Odds from Thursday 11:53am.  http://newsite.tab.co.nz/sport/
Blues over Hurricanes, fair enough, by a buck, fair enough too.
Brumbies over the hodge podge Force by a fair whack, but not unbackable odds for the Brumbies.
Know bugger all about these teams, so will trust the judgement of the money grabbers.
Hot favourites the Crusaders - but did not their counterparts Canterbury lose to Otago TWICE in a week during last seasons NPC, once at home, once away.  Might be worth a flutter on the Clan from the deep south.
Cats and Stormers by a coin toss here by the looks of it - the home team favourites by sod all, which is fair enough - once again, I now bugger all about these Saffa boys until they start getting televised in Kiwiland.
Chiefs favourite!!  Kiss their arse goodbye, the curse of BartMan in oztips, AND the TAB may be insurmountable for the Tribe.