It is a widely accepted “truth” that come October, win lose or draw, Graham (is it with an h or an e?  I can’t be bothered checking) Henry will not seek to extend his contract into next year.

I believe that, should he have wished, he would be given the nod to carry on, so long as 2007 doesn’t turn into 1998 Mark II.  I suspect a semi-final or final defeat would not change that given all the good he has done for the All Blacks in the preceding 4 years.

It is another widely accepted “truth” that NZ dumps it’s rugby coaches for failing at the World Cup.  It would pay to investigate those “facts” further.  The Hart-Wyllie era  was on the downward spiral from mid-1990, Mains stayed on until he chose to go, Hart got too many things wrong and presided over 1998, and Mitchell just pissed everybody off – the RWC just occurred at the end of their respective contracts.  Some may well have gone earlier if the RWC was not looming as being “too close to appoint a new coach”.

So who are the candidates and what are their credentials?

These “facts” are off the top of my head. Please fill in the blanks and correct me where I’m wrong or missing stuff.

Front-runners

Steve Hansen – current All Black assistant.  Rumoured that he is being groomed for the head job (…must … not … make … smutty pun …).  [?]Won NPC as head coach of Canterbury in ????[/?].  Was assistant to Robbie Deans for Crusaders Super 14 win in ????.  Oversaw improved performances with Wales and improved the internal systems, but did not win any major trophies.

Robbie Deans – most successful coach in Super Rugby and possibly New Zealand provincial rugby history (in this case read “sub All Black” for “provincial”).  Tainted by involvement with John Mitchell in the 2001-2003 period – but his loyalty to that “team” should not be underestimated.

Warren Gatland – successful coach with a number of English and Irish club teams.  Improved Irish teams performances and enjoyed success at Wasps and with the Waikato NPC team.

Wayne Smith – Rumour has it he will not be running so can put a line through his name:

Outsiders

Colin Cooper – has had a degree of success at NPC and Super rugby level, reaching play-offs whilst guiding teams with inherent limitations.  Has not won a major tournament. (Did he win the Ranfurly Shield?? Or was that Jed?)
[edit - courtesy of Mainlander]was assistant (or forward) coach under Deans at the Crusaders [edit - courtesy of Phooey] in unbeaten 2002 season[/edit - courtesy of Phooey]. Think they won it at least once (maybe twice) while he was there.  Thus has experience working with Deans and as far as I (Mainlander} know haven't had a falling out.[/edit - courtesy of Mainlander]

Ian Foster – limited success over extended periods with Waikato and the Chiefs.  [?]Guided Waikato to NPC final in 2002 (in association with Farrell Temata).[/?]

Wayne Pivac – successful coach of North Harbour and Auckland including Ranfurly Shield and NPC wins.  Has international experience in trying circumstances with Fiji.

Aussie McLean – a product of the Canterbury system.  Head coach of Canterbury in the NPC with a number (??) of championship wins to his name.  Has both won and lost the Ranfurly Shield as coach.  Limited success with Hurricanes as assistant (made final in 2006).

Greg Cooper – relatively inexperienced with three(?) years as head coach of Super 14 side with no major trophies to his name.  Also assisted Laurie Mains, but was involved in the “Dachau” years.

Pat Lam – inexperienced: only two years coaching and at provincial rather than Super rugby level, however has managed an AirNZ Cup win.

Kieran Crowley – Tainted by involvement with Mitchell era.

Vern Cotter – a great second season with BoP.  Has managed to produce better than historical average results with BoP.  Has assisted Deans at Crusaders.  Lacks experience at this stage.

Leftfield

Grant Fox – was a member of the coaching team at the Blues that won in 2003:  Responsible for the backline that performed brilliantly in 2003 and also enjoyed success as an assistant for the Auckland NPC team.

Gordon Tietjens – probably past his time.  Has had huge success with the New Zealand Sevens and promoted BoP from 2nd division.  Like John Boe (see below) should have been given a Super 12 role (probably the Chiefs) but missed out due to the requirements of the national union to place other displaced coaches.

John Mitchell – successful with the All Blacks during previous tenure, regaining the Bledisloe Cup and winning and retaining the Tri-Nations.  Improved the performances of the Chiefs and had success with England as assistant.  Currently creating a Force at the Farce.  Wounds from his previous tenure (RWC result not withstanding) are likelyt to be too fresh to reappoint him.

John Plumtree – enjoyed some limited success with the Wellington AirNZ.  Has overseas experience as a player and assistant coach at Natal/Sharks.

David Nucifora – successful with the Brumbies – one of only two non-NZ coaches to win the Super 12.

John Kirwan – has international experience with Japan and previously Italy.  Enjoyed limited success with Italy, especially in comparison with his successor (Pierre Berbizier) but still very difficult to get a gauge on his abilities due to the relative talent of his playing group.  No NZ coaching experience

John Boe – seemingly out of favour with the powers that be throughout his career in New Zealand.  Should have been appointed Chiefs Super 12 coach on a number of occasions but circumstances, usually involving the national union, tended to get in the road.  Has international experience with Samoa.  Was very successful with Farrell Temata with the Waikato team in the 1990s.

By the way – my opinion is that I’d like to see Deans get the gig: and let him choose whoever the hell he likes to assist.