Okay, well it has come to that time of the season when we look at the run in to the playoffs.  And there are some crucial games starting this weekend, that could very well be the difference between a team finishing 4th or 5th.

In the past two years 42 and 38 points have been the cut off and I reckon it’ll be about 40 this year.

First of all it’s hard to see the Crusaders slipping up but if it’s going to happen, it’ll probably be sooner rather than later, while their big guns are out.  My pick is when they are away to the Chiefs next week, while the Sharks could also beat them but I’m keen on seeing their away form before backing them to beat the ‘Saders.  The Blues may get up but it’s in Christchurch and on recent form I doubt it.
So they could get to a maximum of 63 points but I’ll say about 57.  Way ahead of any chasers.
Current position 1, points 33.  LIO (h), CHF (a), BLU (h), SHK (h), RED (a), HIG (h)

As is well publicized, the Stormers have a very favourable last 6 weeks of the draw.  On form it is difficult to see them losing any of their remaining games.  That’ll put them on 44 points with a couple of bonus points in there, taking them to 2nd! (So I just slapped $5 on them to make playoffs at a nice $3)
Current position 8, points 18.  CHE (h), HUR (h), HIG (h), BRU (h), WAR (h), LIO (a)

I am not too convinced about the Sharks and genuinely think they’re a chance to lose tonight’s match (have a 5er on the Highlanders and picked them in all comps).  They are away for the next four and will drop at least two of them.  Finish up with the Chiefs at home, which could turn out to be the decisive game for the final playoff spot.  Will total anywhere between 35 and 43.  Probably squeeze into 3rd.
Current position 2, points 27.  HIG (a), BRU (a), WAR (a), CRU (a), CHE (h), CHF (h)

The Blues are pretty worrying and need to arrest the recent slide or it’ll be a disaster of a season.  Still have the bye and the Crusaders away so will need to win every other game to be in with a shot.  Possible, and I’m hopeful of 4th with 40 odd points, but we’ll see.
Current position 3, points 24.  BRU (h), bye, CRU (a), RED (a), HIG (h), HUR (h)

I have liked the Force and am picking them to have a good run home, dropping just one game as well as having the bye.  Won’t be easy though with all the Aussie derbies to come.  Doubt they’ll make it, but should go close finishing on around 39 points.
Current position 5, points 23.  WAR (h), RED (a), bye, CHF (h), HUR (a), BRU (h)

The Chiefs, even though they are on the up, have a tough road home and probably won’t quite make it, surprise surprise.  They still have the bye, and finish up in SA with the Sharks which could be the game that ultimately decides their fate.  I’ve got them taking 3 of their last 5 giving them 38 or 39.
Current position 4, points 23.  bye, CRU (h), RED (h), FOR (a), LIO (a), SHK (a)

The Waratahs could make a late charge and their final match, away against the Reds, could be even more crucial than normal.  Will be coming back from a tough trip in SA so I don’t favour them for a win there or a spot in the playoffs, especially if (when) they lose to the Force this weekend.  34+ points depending on bonuses.
Current position 6, points 22.  FOR (a), LIO (h), SHK (h), BUL (a), STM (a), RED (a)

The Hurricanes are the last realistic chance, but I give them only 3 of their last 6 games, the big question being how they go in SA and in their last match away to the Blues.  36 points won’t be enough, but if they win 4 that could do it.  I say nup, just cause they’re the ‘Canes.
Current position 7, points 21.  BUL (a), STM (a), CHE (a), LIO (h), FOR (h), BLU (h)

The Brumbies probably need to win at least 4 games and I doubt they’ll get more than 2 while anyone else below them would need a dramatic change in form and to remain undefeated.

Certainly some crucial matches starting now, and culminating in what should be a cracker final weekend.