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So here's the table, with 3 games left to play. 3 teams clearing at the top - and as predicted a dog fight for 4th. The Chiefs probably the biggest surprise (given the analysis and comments 3-4 weeks ago).
This shows wins and total points. Since all the byes are over, the teams are now all level on games played. Showing wins now (instead of games played), as it makes interesting reading, for instance the Crusadars equal with Blues yet one less win and the Chiefs equal with Brumbies and Bulls, but having won 2 less games. Teams Left To Play shows the games left in order - with the games in bold being home games for the team.
Key Note - last time I did this (2 weeks ago), the Chiefs were in 11th. Now they're in 4th. Shows how tight the middle of the table is. I've also split the table into three. First section is the three teams who are ''almost' assured of a semi-final spot. The next section are the teams that are in a real dog-fight for the last available spot! And the last group are those that are already out of semi-final contention.
So same deal as last time: Each home games is worth a point, plus those playing teams in the top four (at the moment the Crusaders, Blues, Sharks and Chiefs – Force dropped out, Chiefs added) should be a disadvantage (less 1 point) and playing teams in the bottom four (at the moment Cheetahs, Stormers, Waratahs and the Reds – Cheetahs replaced the Chiefs) should be an advantage (plus 1 point).
| Team |
Wins |
Points |
Teams Left To Play |
Home
Games |
Top
Four |
Bottom
Four |
Total
Points |
| Crusaders |
7 |
37 |
Hurricanes, Brumbies, Chiefs |
+2 |
-1 |
- |
+1 |
| Blues |
8 |
37 |
Stormers, Bulls, Force |
- |
- |
+1 |
+1 |
| Sharks |
8 |
34 |
Chiefs, Lions, Stormers |
+1 |
-1 |
+1 |
+1 |
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And now the teams in contention for 4th |
| Chiefs |
4 |
27 |
Sharks, Waratahs, Crusaders |
+1 |
-2 |
+1 |
- |
| Bulls |
6 |
27 |
Lions, Blues, Reds |
+2 |
-1 |
+1 |
+2 |
| Brumbies |
6 |
27 |
Force, Crusaders, Highlanders |
+2 |
-1 |
- |
+1 |
| Force |
5 |
26 |
Brumbies, Cheetahs, Blues |
+2 |
-1 |
+1 |
+2 |
| Hurricanes |
5 |
23 |
Crusaders, Highlanders, Waratahs |
+2 |
-1 |
+1 |
+2 |
| Highlanders |
4 |
22 |
Waratahs, Hurricanes, Brumbies |
+1 |
- |
+1 |
+2 |
| Lions |
5 |
21 |
Bulls, Sharks, Cheetahs |
+2 |
-1 |
+1 |
+2 |
| Cheetahs |
3 |
18 |
Reds, Force, Lions |
- |
- |
+1 |
+1 |
| Stormers |
4 |
18 |
Blues, Reds, Sharks |
+3 |
-2 |
+1 |
+2 |
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Teams making up the numbers |
| Waratahs |
2 |
14 |
Highlanders, Chiefs, Hurricanes |
+2 |
-1 |
- |
+1 |
| Reds |
1 |
7 |
Cheetahs, Stormers, Bulls |
+1 |
- |
+2 |
+2 |
So here's my summary after 10 completed rounds (over 11 weekends).
Top 3 Summary
So that shows the top 3 have pretty much the same run in. Crusaders with two home games left though - should end up in first. So home semi and final for them.
Blues and Sharks both have the Stormers left to play - should be 5 points for both teams. The Sharks Chiefs game this coming week is critical. Will either keep the Sharks in for a home semi if they win, or keep the Chiefs in for a playoff spot if they win. Key game this coming week.
4th Place Summary
Given their are technically 9 teams still fighting for the 4th spot - 2 wins is key (at least 35 points). 4 weeks ago it looked like Force, Bulls, Highlanders were the contenders for this spot, with Brumbies and Hurricanes possibles. They're now joined by Chiefs, with the Lions, Cheetahs and Stormers rank outsiders. The last 3 need to win all 3 games to stay in contention, most likely with bonus points (so they're only on paper possibilities). So that leaves Chiefs, Bulls, Brumbies, Force, Hurricanes and Highlanders.
Chiefs, hardest of the runs in of those 6 - having to play both Sharks and Crusaders. Have to win one of the games against the Crusaders or Sharks (presuming they win against Waratahs).
Bulls, with two easier games against Lions and Reds are looking good. Need to win both of these and may need some bonus points as well.
Brumbies, need to win against the Force (will the Force bounce back after two beatings?) and the Highlanders.
Force, need to beat one of the Brumbies (away - will be tricky) or the Blues (presuming they win against the Cheetahs)
Hurricanes, need to beat both Highlanders and Waratahs (with bonus points) and get some points in the game this coming weekend against the Crusaders.
Highlanders, need to beat both Waratahs and Hurricanes (with bonus points) and get some points in their last game against the Brumbies.
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