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Here's the first comprehensive analysis I'll
have made since the 2004 flat backline controversy in any sort of written form.
I'd first like to say I'm speechless, gutted,
still shaking and in morbid disbelief of what has just happened. But I'm also
philosophical about the whole thing. I'm young, so I haven't had to live through
the devastations of 1991 and 1995 with the same rabid nationalism as I do today
and like all of us here on the TSF, I am a student of the game. This is, as I
see it, the worst loss New Zealand Rugby has ever faced on the world stage (that
bars Munster). This is my honest analysis.
OVERVIEW: Well well, we pretty much won the
game on the stats board, but a lack of composure, key mistakes at key times, and
an inability to convert pressure into points, combined with almost flawless,
canny French defensive performance saw us lose our heads, and yes, I'll say it,
admit it, whatever you want. We choked. Big time.
1. SELECTIONS
Alright, we may have all looked at the team sheet and thought "Yipee the most
experienced All Black 22 in the history of all time ever ever, we can't lose."
But it certainly unfolded differently during the game, and what people saw as
sound selections became silly ones. Here's the positions where we lost the game.
................4 Keith
Well, I remember in the first half, while I was still feeling quite confident,
thinking good old Keith was being carried by the side. Just seemed too slow and
not physical enough. Didn't have a massive impact, but we may have been able to
take better advantage of our good first half with more physicality and I think
Keith sorely lacked that today.
................9 Kelleher
Started off playing brilliant footy, really liked the way he ran the game. But
when the French put the pressure on he reverted back to his old typecast extra
loose forward crap that saw us lose a distributer and lose our quick ball. Look
at the successes of Gomarsell and, more recently, Ellisalde. Whatever we thought
about the physical halfback has turned out to be ballocks. A working brain , big
mouth and speedy, accurate hands are what we need in the modern game. I believe
that was proven tonight. Leonard was impressive to say the least, while not
having a tremendous impact, we regained alot of our composure and I thought for
the young guy that he is and for the situation that he was thrust into, he made
a damn good fist at it. We really missed Weepu's composure and kicking boots
today.
................11 Sivivatu
This was one of two selections that really irked me on the team sheet, despite
obvious justifications for his selection, they were presumptuous and really, by
principle, silly. It seemed the Cartel underestimated the French, both
defensively and offensively, and this is why Sivivatu, the havoc machine, the
ultimate nonsense player, was selected. The French would kick kick kick and we
would run run run. Except we couldn't break their line. Sivivatu was too high
and got isolated on a number of occassions, being stripped of the ball. He was
defensively soft and it showed. Howlett was a no brainer for this test and his
non-selection just reflects complacency. Stuff "Strike Rates" the Cartel wanted
to, and thought they would put 50 on France.
................13 Mils
This wasn't my first choice for the jersey, but
it didn't bother me on the team sheet as I thought he was a solid selection. But
it is more his selection in combination with Leon MacDonald's selection that
took us from behind, up the arse, big time. We had a 10 12 13 of Carter,
McAlister and Muliaina. Carter was pinned as the decision maker and go-to man,
McAlister was used mainly for linebreaking and offloading, and Milsie was
selected purely for solidarity. He was a grey blur in this test. While he did
nothing clearly wrong, we needed more brains and creativity in the backline. We
put everything on Carter's shoulders. When he went, we'd lost the game. I'd
pretty much figured it out by then, but the Nick Evans came on and cranked it up
bigtime. Then he went off. Oh woe. But that's to be discussed later. Anyway,
Muliaina was wasted at Centre and Leon had an indifferent game at the back
littered with general ineffectiveness and sprinkled with a few glaring defensive
errors. Conrad Smith should have started this game. Period. He probably won't
last until the next world cup, so I feel sorry for the bloke. He was the man we
needed to win the big games. Not Milsie on the principle that he'd played 40
tests. He's played less than Conrad at 13. At any level. Toeava wasn't justified
either. We need cool heads, hands and brains in the backs. We traded them all
for 'strike rates' and 'experience'. I'm afraid we've fallen victim to NOT
PICKING A SPECIALIST 13 AGAIN. And this is easily my biggest woe of the match.
That's 3 now. Three world cups we've lost with a fullback playing out of
position at centre. I'd have hoped the Cartel would've known better.
................15 Leon MacDonald
Utter shite. Sorry, but his great, slippery running game didn't feature. He
kicked decently to poorly and was shoddy defensively. Worst selection ever.
Sorry, I'm getting emotional. Must've been writing about Muliaina in the last
positional rant. But what can I say, 13 and 15 were once again rooted over
sideways by All Black coaching staff.
2. GAME PLAN
Well, what can I say. It was like the Cartel knew how to beat this French game
that they prepared for (the French were NOT unpredictable at any stage of the
game), but they didn't at all. General strategy without tactical finesse.
It was like World War 1;
Henry: "We know we have to take their trenches, but how do we do it?"
Smith: "Go over the top. We have the best troops. We'll overwhelm them."
Henry: "I agree."
Hansen: "But what about the machine guns?"
Henry: "What's a machine gun?"
This can obviously be attributed to nullifying French work at the breakdown and
stalwart defence, but at the same time, we suffered from no Plan B. Well, we
actually looked to have several variations of plan A, but all of them didn't
work.
3. COMPLACENCY
Ben Tune said "I don't believe in complacency at World Cup Quarter Finals." Well
guess what, the two best teams in the Southern Hemisphere have just bit the
dust. And we were complacent. Oh yes.
The game plan was complacently simplistic and invariable based on the
selections. Mils "Grey Blur" Muliaina was restrictive and slowed down the pace
of the line. He doesn't have brilliant acceleration or power, so relies on his
footwork, which gets him caught up and unable to throw the next pass. Conrad
Smith anyone? Never mind. This obviously also showed in the Sivivatu selection
as well.
4. HOODOO
All the hype hurt us. Simple as that. GH has been saying we're going to take
home this world cup since he could walk, or at least we're training to. The
players were still young, there was alot heaped on their shoulders. You throw
them into the middle of a shitfight with a passionate French side, backs to the
wall with nothing to lose? Well, always a recipe for disaster. They were worried
about choking, and all the badly timed fifty fifty passes, lack of certainty and
general indecision meant that we choked. Our own fault. I don't believe in
hoodoos and I don't think players do either, but it's a prospect that hurts you
from the back of your mind, ties your heart to the ground.
5. INJURIES/YELLOWS
Well, all that great preparation developing extreme depth and we lost our 2 10s.
When we lost Carter I thought we'd struggle. We we lost Evans, well, I knew it
was all over. But what happened when Lukey went to 10? Everything went to shit.
Leonard sat there for 15-30 seconds at a time screaming at Luke as he struggled
to set the backline for anything. We lost it. McAlister was a blow, but with the
pressure we put on the French straight after he was marched off, we still
should've stayed in it. No excuses there at all.
6. FRENCH TENACITY
Yes. Unbelievably. Backs to the wall. Nothing to lose. Their world cup.
Dangerous as anything. They always had a shot.
7. THE POOLS?
Now, this probably deserves a better number than 7 on the list. But I forgot to
put it in earlier and I can't be bothered to change the numbers back. I find it
particularly intriguing that the two teams who smoked their way through their
"Easy" pools have come up against top sides who have been tested, slammed by the
media and thrown into underdog status when they finished second in their pool,
to be outplayed. Improvement comes through mistakes. For the All Blacks and the
French, alot to lose and a haunting hoodoo to face plays nothing to lose at all
and the pride of their team to regain. The same goes for Australia/England, just
without the hoodoo part.
8. FORWARD PASS?
Go to hell. The French deserved the try.
9. CONCLUSION?
We sucked. All the things above, save the forward pass, (because who really
cares we've got away with it tens of dozens of times before), contributed to our
loss. Especially the poor selection decisions, which are easy to make in
retrospect. So, I bring it down to Selection/Game Plan Complacency by the
Cartel, too many emotions at once on behalf of the players and a fantastic
French performance. Well done France, I hope the celebrations tonight are extra
festive. You deserve it.
As for the All Blacks, bring on Robbie Deans.
And if he @%$#ing selects a fullback at centre for ANY test matches AT ALL then
I will explode. I've not given up on you ABs. I'm still proud of you. The 8 that
didn't play... that is.
We're chokers for four more years guys. At
least the Aussies are doing it with us this time.
WHO WE MISSED: Conrad Smith, Piri Weepu, Doug
Howlett, Chris Jack (early).
WHO WAS GOOD: Rodney So'oialo, Ali Williams,
Joe Rokocoko, Brendon Leonard, Nick Evans (for all of about 10 minutes)
MAN OF THE MATCH: Yannick Jauzion
So, now that's done, go the Argies! This
is the Underdog's World Cup.
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