 Well in just a couple of weeks the ICC's flagship
tournament takes centre stage. This time its been held in the small island
nations that make up the West Indies. As was the case last time its an
expanded format and in my opinion too long with teams that shouldn't be there,
ie Canada, Ireland, Scotland etc...
When the smaller cricketing nations come up against the big boys watch
out!, It's likely there will be a few more scores of 400 (assuming the
major teams bat first).
Despite a very tough month with a string of losses and injuries, the
Australians are still the team to beat, and likely winners. They know how
to win this tournament, they have done it the last 2 times in 99 and 03'.
But considering they have lost their last 5 ODI's,6 out of 7 and will be missing
Brett Lee im sure the other teams must feel the field is looking alot more even.
But they aren't the only team with injury concern. Pakistan have
lost 3 players to injury (yeah right!), England still have problems with Michael
Vaughan and Kevin Pieterson. New Zealand are taking Jacob Oram over,
broken finger and all...thouh last heard he's willing to have it amputated if it
means he can play.. that's the spirit big Jake!
South Africa will be a big threat as always,
althouh they have a poor record in the big tournaments "You just dropped the
World Cup" ring a bell?
But as newly crowned number 1 ranked ODI team and with key players such as
Pollack, Boucher, Ntini and Kallis in form they should be there or there abouts...
Plenty of 'dark horses' to look out for as well. You cant discount
home town support for the Windies. Especially as its likely to be Brian
Lara's big swansong on the ODI stage. Other key players include
Chanderpaul, Sarwan, and Gayle... Bowling maybe their big weakness
however. If they want inspiration, then they should look no further than
the 'Young Guns' of 1992. A team who wasn't considered a serious chance
but outplayed themselves and everyone else (except Pakistan) and very nearly won
a tournament they dominated.
The Asian teams will be a threat as always. Sri Lanka have won it
before and have talent in both batting and bowling. Sangakkara, Jayasuriya,
Atapattu are all very fine and at times devastating batsmen. Muralitharan
and Vaas provide the bowling talent.
India have perhaps the 2nd best batting lineup, only to Australia, with
the likes of Tendulkar, Dravid, Shewag, Dhoni and the recently recalled Ganguly.
They also have the bowlers who may be very useful on the slow tracks that they
will be playing on, Kumble and Harbhajan Singh will provide the spin, Pathan and
Sreesanth the medium pace attack.
One team I'm sure not many will be rooting for is the Pakistan team, who
each week finds more ways to shoot itself in the foot and make a mockery of the
so called "spirit of cricket.
At least the 2 drug dodgers Aktar and Asif won't be there... 'injury
problems' have forced them out of the squad... no really, that's the official
excuse! They also suffered a blow with the withdrawl of experienced
allrounder Abdul Razzaq. Despite those 'issues' they still have players
capable of winning games, and Pakistan have never been a team you take for
granted (flashback to 1992)! Inzamam-ul-Haq, Mohammad Yousuf, Younis Khan
are very good batsmen, plus they have one of the biggest hitters in the game in
Shahid Afridi. A bowling attack which is now effected badly by Chuckers
'injury' but still can boast the bowler with the best bowling at the death
record in Naved-ul-Hasan but not much else.
England is another team that shouldn't be underestimated, they have made 3
previous world cup finals and just won the CB Trophy last month. With that
likeable Saffa Kevin Pieterson (KP to his mates...if he had any) returning from
injury and very fine ODI players in Paul Collingwood, Andrew Flintoff and James
Anderson they have the ability to win games. They have a very raw but
talented bowling attack with the likes of Mahmood, Plunkett and the most likable
man in cricket Monty Panesar.
That brings me to New Zealand,4 times semi-finalists.. but never
progressed any further than that.
On a high after thrashing the Australians 3-0 in the recent Chappel/Hadlee
series. Dismissing the Aussies for their lowest score in over 10 years
then handing the number 2 side in the world their first 10 wicket loss.
Then followed that up with 2 incredible run chases, the 2nd and 3rd
highest in ODI history. But despite all those heroics they have played
poorly at times this season and have blown more than one game that they should
have won.
But what they do have is key players in great form, Shane Bond, Lou
Vincent, Jacob Oram, Ross Taylor, Peter Fulton, Brendon McCullum and of course
Craig MacMillan have made huge contributions over the past couple of months.
They will be required to continue, along side with Captain Flemings return to
form, the miserly and accurate spin of Vettor. NZ has one of the better
balanced sides, with probably the best batting lower order going.
But the team i expect to be in the final,and most likely to win it is
Australia, despite the form reversal and injury problems they still are a team
stacked with world class players. They easily have the best batting lineup
out there, Gilchrist and Hayden, followed by the worlds best batsmen Ricky
Ponting (who's captaincy is much improved), Micheal Clark, Roy Symonds (if
passed fit) and Mr Cricket Michael Hussey who no doubt never wants to captain
Australia ever again!
Their biggest weakness though is their bowling, it was ruthlessly exposed
in Auckland and Hamilton recently, without Brett Lee they lack major firepower.
They still have 2 fine ODI bowlers in McGrath and Bracken, but are also having
to rely on inexperienced fast bowlers in Tait and Clarke.
My advice for any team playing against Australia is too put them into bat
first and attempt to chase down whatever total they have set, the Black Caps did
it 3 times easily enough!!
Then you have the other teams, Zimbabwe, Netherlands, Scotland, Ireland,
Canada, Bermuda, Bangladesh and Kenya.. thanks for coming see you next time!
Likely Semi-Finalists.. Australia, South Africa, New Zealand and West
Indies. But really just about all the big teams can be there.
Interesting to note, no host nation has ever won the Cup so that also
plays against West Indies chances, mind you no team has ever won 3 cups in a
row...so does that mean Australia wont win?
Previous winners are
1975 West Indies
1979 West Indies
1983 India
1987 Australia
1992 Pakistan
1996 Sri Lanka
1999 Australia
2003 Australia
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