Risk Analysis



October 19th, 2019

So by this time tomorrow we'll know if we're still in the comp or if we've reverted to 1991.

So by this time tomorrow we’ll know if we’re still in the comp or if we’ve reverted to 1991.

(Does anyone remember the disbelief of 91 that we could actually lose?)

How are we feeling about our chances?

Earlier in the week the thought of a loss did not even occur. But the odd prediction of an Irish win gives me pause for thought.

I’m wavering between supremely confident / completely unworried (All Black arrogant), and rocking in the corner sucking my thumb nervous.

Currently for me me probability of us getting through is about 70:30. So 30% chance of failure. Which is far too high.

The really big trouble is the consequence of losing … definitely “catastophic”.

So if you’re doing a risk assessment:
Probability = possible
Consequence = catastrophic
Resultant rIsk = “High”

Where’s y’all at? We’s confident? We’s worried?

And also you Johnny Foreigner (Irish types and other Quartet finalists) supporting non All Black teams. Where’s you at in your QF?

Forum Comments