Awful analysis, incorrect conclusions, zero insight
Wrong about pretty much everything
From the Forum
mariner4life
in 'NRL 2024'
April 25, 11:04pm
The Warriors need a hard reset.
Our attack has gone to shit. Linebreaks are non-existent, but our completion rates are awesome. We're back to that shit we played under Nathan Brown. Last year a strength was the complete faith in the process. This year it's a weakness because when it's not working, we're not trying anything else until we are chasing the game.
SJ isn't challenging the line enough, our sweep plays involve too much lateral running, and teams are just sliding. I am not sure of the stats, but i feel like our wingers score the smallest percentage of our tries in the league.
We're rubbishing Montoya, but he gets no ball in attack, gets no balls kicked to his wing, he's basically there to cart the ball out of our own end. We have no plan to get Roger in space, and to be fair, he doesn't look like taking the outside shoulder and putting a winger away.
Dallin is Dallin, rocks and diamonds. But there aren't many diamonds as he is starved of opportunity.
TMM is a waste of space. Harris is digging in to the line, but too often his pass is too deep, and the opposition knows it's coming.
I am fucking sick of the same set being played over and over for no result. Great plan if you have Penrith's defence and discipline. You get rewards. We can't force errors or jam a team in their own end. And then we'll give away a late penalty.
Webster needs to take a step back and have a look, i reckon we need the bye desperately for a reset. If every game looks exactly the same, it has to be by design.
Auckman
in 'Black Ferns 2024'
April 23, 11:46pm
Biggest Shock:
Krysten Cottrell (Blues) was the best first five in Aupiki yet misses out. Yes she may be a bit old but she was in form and the highest point scorer for the competition. Itunu is old too but she got the nod. Yet we have King (potential but not there yet) and Demant (she’s really a second-five & isn’t a goal kicker).
Really happy for:
Kahlia Awa (Blues) - brilliant for the Blues
Aldora Itunu (Blues) - ditto
Maama Vaipulu (Blues) - another blues player who knocked the door down
Iritana Hohaia (Poua) - done well in a losing Poua team
Layla Sa’e (Poua) - ditto
Kaipo Olsen-Baker (Matatu)
Career revival:
Kaipo Olsen-Baker (Matatu) - after being dropped in 2022 her form deserves selection this year
Patricia Maliepo (Blues) - great for Blues; returns for first time since 2021
Alora Itunu (Blues) - it’s been years!
Big sackings / end of career for:
AMT (Chiefs Manawa) - completely agree, she was rubbish this year
Hazel Tubic (Chiefs Manawa) - shocker in the final
Chelsea Semple (Chiefs Manawa) - absolute shocker in final, time to retire
Rosie Kelly (Matatu) - a bit unlucky, she showed glimpses
Charmaine McMeniman - it’s been a nice career for the old warhorse but it’s probably retirement time now
Coming back from injury contingent:
Joanna Ngan-Woo (Poua)
Awhina Tangen-Wainohu (Chiefs Manawa)
Ayesha Leti-Iiga (Poua)
Lucky to be selected:
Ariana Bayler (Chiefs Manawa) - pass is slow, no sniping game, doesn’t box kick, her only ability is to set up her pods and maybe her defence. Can’t believe she made it again.
Unlucky to miss out:
Grace Brooker (Matatu)
Victoria Edmonds (Chiefs Manawa)
Mia Anderson (Chiefs Manawa) - she got a half-contract
Half-contract contingent:
Pip Love (Matatu)
Liv McGoverne (Matatu)
Mia Anderson (Chiefs Manawa)
Negotiations ongoing:
Krystal Murray
Duluth
in 'Crusaders 2024'
April 21, 11:17pm
The Crusaders remaining matches (home team first)
Crusaders v Rebels
Crusaders v Reds
Highlanders v Crusaders
Brumbies v Crusaders
Crusaders v Blues
Crusaders v Pasifika
In 2023 five wins go you close to the top 8 (8th, 9th & 10th had 5 wins). 8th place had 24 points
in 2022 four wins was the line (8th, 9th & 10th had 4 wins). 8th place had 23 points
I think the line might be higher this year with a few more lower/mid table teams getting wins
Crusaders currently have 1 win and 7 points
So looking at what's left surely they are almost 100% likely to win that last match? Very likely to beat the Aussie sides in Christchurch?
So that would be 4 wins and at least 12 more points
Then they likely just need one win vs Highlanders (away), Brumbies (away) or Blues (home)
So they should still make the finals of this dumb system easily. If they trip up against the Rebels or Reds it'll get interesting though
Duluth
in 'Super Rugby 2024'
April 21, 10:37pm
Updating those Aus v NZ stats after the weekend. Three more games, two more Aussie wins. Every Aussie side now has at least one win against a NZ side now
Aussie Team
Matches vs NZ Sides
Wins vs NZ sides
Brumbies
3
1
Force
3
1
Reds
3
2
Rebels
2
1
Waratahs
4
2
Total
15
7
Aussies vs
Matches
Aussies Wins
Blues
3
0
Chiefs
2
1
Hurricanes
3
0
Crusaders
3
3
Highlanders
4
3
Total
15
7
Maybe this table should be split into North Island and South Island. The Chiefs letting down the North Island
Highlanders the best of the South with the only win vs an Aussie side. Overall 7 SI games against Aussies and 6 losses
taniwharugby
in 'Northland Club Rugby 2024'
April 20, 6:49am
It was a gloomy autumn afternoon, but watching the game updates and checking other reports, there was some excellent matches this afternoon!
Only one game was separated by more than 5 points, and 3 teams remain unbeaten.
The big game between Mid Northern and Moerewa/United Kawakawa ended in a draw, from what I saw, MUKK lead for 75 odd minutes, and at 1 point were 9 points clear, but in the end it was a MUKK penalty at the death that saw the game end 26-26.
I went along to Kamo v Sharks, 1st half Kamo were heading into a stiff breeze and was almost 20 minutes before they opened the scoring through young wing Jacob Lowther, they stretched thier lead further after #8 Jarvaiyas Mangu busted several tackles before out pacing the cover defence to put them out to 12-0.
The Sharks hit back almost immediately with a nicely worked try to fullback Josiah Povey, the unsuccessful kick would see the half end 12-5.
The Sharks, despite turning to face the wind hit back soon after the restart to tie things up at 12 all.
Kamo then made some great in roads through thier pack, and after going close a couple of times, prop Iose Brown stepped a defender and scored next to the uprights to put Kamo back in front.
The Sharks werent done, as they hit back soon after, they also had several chances with bruising lock Inoke Tavatu shrugging defenders aside as he stormed toward the line, then somehow, Kamo's 6 Harry Lowther bought him down just short, before they ended up scoring several phases later to again, draw level.
Now inside the final 10, with the scores tied up at 19-19, Kamo won a penalty about 25 out, right in the middle of the field, and for some reason, they went for the corner...now they did win 2 further consecutive penalties at the lineout maul, then at a scrum, only to turn around and concede a dumb penalty to allow the Sharks off the hook.
However, playing into the wind, the Sharks were unable to clear too far, and further waves of attack lead to the visitors making an error giving Kamo a scrum 5m out, from there Jayden Laupepe, thier normal fullback playing 9 crashed over his opposite to score the match winner, and with other results, go to the top of the table.
For Kamo, Ben Monaghan played very well, carried strongly, tackled and was a good target in thier lineout, Blake Hohaia did well playing at FB, while young Jacob Lowther showed some glimpses of class on the wing.
The Sharks who field a pretty decent sized forward pack were unable to utilise that advantage, even with big Inoke Tavatu and hard running midfielder Jone Mateiwai hitting the ball up, they were often met and bought down. Tavutu was also very busy at breakdowns and made some crucial tackles.
Fullback Josiah Povey showed good pace and looked dangerous when he got the ball, while young Lucas Payne showed his extreme pace on occasion, sadly, usually only chasing kicks rather than with ball in hand.
In the other games:
Wellsford managed to come from behind to stop Hikurangi
OBM comfortably accounted for Hora Hora
Waipu nabbed thier first win of the season
taniwharugby
in 'Northland Club Rugby 2024'
April 18, 11:21pm
Weather looks a bit dicey for tomorrow, which is a shame with 2 big games on the card that sees 1 v 3 and 2 v 5.
Not yet seen any team sheets.
Match of the round will be unbeaten MN (1st) taking on unbeaten Moerewa/United Kawakawa (3rd) MN are tracking well despite not being as strong (on paper) as last year, while MM/UKK is chock full of veteran players with a sprinkling of youth, while I expect MN to be too strong, I thnkn M/UKK will be there at the business end of the season
Wellsford host Hikurangi, after a heavy home loss last week, Wellsford will be out to get back on track, however if Hikurangi have big Matt Letoga at 8 again, I think they will sneak past Wellsford.
OBM fresh off their big away win over Wellsford will want to keep rolling against HH, who I must say aren’t as good as I thought they should be, although without a decent front row, they will battle, I think this will be tight, but OBM to win it
Kamo (2nd) still undefeated host 5th place Western Sharks, I think Kamo should take this, while they aren’t the biggest, fastest or best, they have a solid looking team across the board, although their lineout is a bit of a weakness IMO
Waipu, who defaulted in their away fixture last week, host Kerikeri, the visitors should be too strong for Waipu, who seem to be battling on and off the field this year and last year, after making the final in 2022
From the Forum
mariner4life
in 'NRL 2024'
April 25, 11:04pm
The Warriors need a hard reset.
Our attack has gone to shit. Linebreaks are non-existent, but our completion rates are awesome. We're back to that shit we played under Nathan Brown. Last year a strength was the complete faith in the process. This year it's a weakness because when it's not working, we're not trying anything else until we are chasing the game.
SJ isn't challenging the line enough, our sweep plays involve too much lateral running, and teams are just sliding. I am not sure of the stats, but i feel like our wingers score the smallest percentage of our tries in the league.
We're rubbishing Montoya, but he gets no ball in attack, gets no balls kicked to his wing, he's basically there to cart the ball out of our own end. We have no plan to get Roger in space, and to be fair, he doesn't look like taking the outside shoulder and putting a winger away.
Dallin is Dallin, rocks and diamonds. But there aren't many diamonds as he is starved of opportunity.
TMM is a waste of space. Harris is digging in to the line, but too often his pass is too deep, and the opposition knows it's coming.
I am fucking sick of the same set being played over and over for no result. Great plan if you have Penrith's defence and discipline. You get rewards. We can't force errors or jam a team in their own end. And then we'll give away a late penalty.
Webster needs to take a step back and have a look, i reckon we need the bye desperately for a reset. If every game looks exactly the same, it has to be by design.
Auckman
in 'Black Ferns 2024'
April 23, 11:46pm
Biggest Shock:
Krysten Cottrell (Blues) was the best first five in Aupiki yet misses out. Yes she may be a bit old but she was in form and the highest point scorer for the competition. Itunu is old too but she got the nod. Yet we have King (potential but not there yet) and Demant (she’s really a second-five & isn’t a goal kicker).
Really happy for:
Kahlia Awa (Blues) - brilliant for the Blues
Aldora Itunu (Blues) - ditto
Maama Vaipulu (Blues) - another blues player who knocked the door down
Iritana Hohaia (Poua) - done well in a losing Poua team
Layla Sa’e (Poua) - ditto
Kaipo Olsen-Baker (Matatu)
Career revival:
Kaipo Olsen-Baker (Matatu) - after being dropped in 2022 her form deserves selection this year
Patricia Maliepo (Blues) - great for Blues; returns for first time since 2021
Alora Itunu (Blues) - it’s been years!
Big sackings / end of career for:
AMT (Chiefs Manawa) - completely agree, she was rubbish this year
Hazel Tubic (Chiefs Manawa) - shocker in the final
Chelsea Semple (Chiefs Manawa) - absolute shocker in final, time to retire
Rosie Kelly (Matatu) - a bit unlucky, she showed glimpses
Charmaine McMeniman - it’s been a nice career for the old warhorse but it’s probably retirement time now
Coming back from injury contingent:
Joanna Ngan-Woo (Poua)
Awhina Tangen-Wainohu (Chiefs Manawa)
Ayesha Leti-Iiga (Poua)
Lucky to be selected:
Ariana Bayler (Chiefs Manawa) - pass is slow, no sniping game, doesn’t box kick, her only ability is to set up her pods and maybe her defence. Can’t believe she made it again.
Unlucky to miss out:
Grace Brooker (Matatu)
Victoria Edmonds (Chiefs Manawa)
Mia Anderson (Chiefs Manawa) - she got a half-contract
Half-contract contingent:
Pip Love (Matatu)
Liv McGoverne (Matatu)
Mia Anderson (Chiefs Manawa)
Negotiations ongoing:
Krystal Murray
Duluth
in 'Crusaders 2024'
April 21, 11:17pm
The Crusaders remaining matches (home team first)
Crusaders v Rebels
Crusaders v Reds
Highlanders v Crusaders
Brumbies v Crusaders
Crusaders v Blues
Crusaders v Pasifika
In 2023 five wins go you close to the top 8 (8th, 9th & 10th had 5 wins). 8th place had 24 points
in 2022 four wins was the line (8th, 9th & 10th had 4 wins). 8th place had 23 points
I think the line might be higher this year with a few more lower/mid table teams getting wins
Crusaders currently have 1 win and 7 points
So looking at what's left surely they are almost 100% likely to win that last match? Very likely to beat the Aussie sides in Christchurch?
So that would be 4 wins and at least 12 more points
Then they likely just need one win vs Highlanders (away), Brumbies (away) or Blues (home)
So they should still make the finals of this dumb system easily. If they trip up against the Rebels or Reds it'll get interesting though
Duluth
in 'Super Rugby 2024'
April 21, 10:37pm
Updating those Aus v NZ stats after the weekend. Three more games, two more Aussie wins. Every Aussie side now has at least one win against a NZ side now
Aussie Team
Matches vs NZ Sides
Wins vs NZ sides
Brumbies
3
1
Force
3
1
Reds
3
2
Rebels
2
1
Waratahs
4
2
Total
15
7
Aussies vs
Matches
Aussies Wins
Blues
3
0
Chiefs
2
1
Hurricanes
3
0
Crusaders
3
3
Highlanders
4
3
Total
15
7
Maybe this table should be split into North Island and South Island. The Chiefs letting down the North Island
Highlanders the best of the South with the only win vs an Aussie side. Overall 7 SI games against Aussies and 6 losses
taniwharugby
in 'Northland Club Rugby 2024'
April 20, 6:49am
It was a gloomy autumn afternoon, but watching the game updates and checking other reports, there was some excellent matches this afternoon!
Only one game was separated by more than 5 points, and 3 teams remain unbeaten.
The big game between Mid Northern and Moerewa/United Kawakawa ended in a draw, from what I saw, MUKK lead for 75 odd minutes, and at 1 point were 9 points clear, but in the end it was a MUKK penalty at the death that saw the game end 26-26.
I went along to Kamo v Sharks, 1st half Kamo were heading into a stiff breeze and was almost 20 minutes before they opened the scoring through young wing Jacob Lowther, they stretched thier lead further after #8 Jarvaiyas Mangu busted several tackles before out pacing the cover defence to put them out to 12-0.
The Sharks hit back almost immediately with a nicely worked try to fullback Josiah Povey, the unsuccessful kick would see the half end 12-5.
The Sharks, despite turning to face the wind hit back soon after the restart to tie things up at 12 all.
Kamo then made some great in roads through thier pack, and after going close a couple of times, prop Iose Brown stepped a defender and scored next to the uprights to put Kamo back in front.
The Sharks werent done, as they hit back soon after, they also had several chances with bruising lock Inoke Tavatu shrugging defenders aside as he stormed toward the line, then somehow, Kamo's 6 Harry Lowther bought him down just short, before they ended up scoring several phases later to again, draw level.
Now inside the final 10, with the scores tied up at 19-19, Kamo won a penalty about 25 out, right in the middle of the field, and for some reason, they went for the corner...now they did win 2 further consecutive penalties at the lineout maul, then at a scrum, only to turn around and concede a dumb penalty to allow the Sharks off the hook.
However, playing into the wind, the Sharks were unable to clear too far, and further waves of attack lead to the visitors making an error giving Kamo a scrum 5m out, from there Jayden Laupepe, thier normal fullback playing 9 crashed over his opposite to score the match winner, and with other results, go to the top of the table.
For Kamo, Ben Monaghan played very well, carried strongly, tackled and was a good target in thier lineout, Blake Hohaia did well playing at FB, while young Jacob Lowther showed some glimpses of class on the wing.
The Sharks who field a pretty decent sized forward pack were unable to utilise that advantage, even with big Inoke Tavatu and hard running midfielder Jone Mateiwai hitting the ball up, they were often met and bought down. Tavutu was also very busy at breakdowns and made some crucial tackles.
Fullback Josiah Povey showed good pace and looked dangerous when he got the ball, while young Lucas Payne showed his extreme pace on occasion, sadly, usually only chasing kicks rather than with ball in hand.
In the other games:
Wellsford managed to come from behind to stop Hikurangi
OBM comfortably accounted for Hora Hora
Waipu nabbed thier first win of the season
taniwharugby
in 'Northland Club Rugby 2024'
April 18, 11:21pm
Weather looks a bit dicey for tomorrow, which is a shame with 2 big games on the card that sees 1 v 3 and 2 v 5.
Not yet seen any team sheets.
Match of the round will be unbeaten MN (1st) taking on unbeaten Moerewa/United Kawakawa (3rd) MN are tracking well despite not being as strong (on paper) as last year, while MM/UKK is chock full of veteran players with a sprinkling of youth, while I expect MN to be too strong, I thnkn M/UKK will be there at the business end of the season
Wellsford host Hikurangi, after a heavy home loss last week, Wellsford will be out to get back on track, however if Hikurangi have big Matt Letoga at 8 again, I think they will sneak past Wellsford.
OBM fresh off their big away win over Wellsford will want to keep rolling against HH, who I must say aren’t as good as I thought they should be, although without a decent front row, they will battle, I think this will be tight, but OBM to win it
Kamo (2nd) still undefeated host 5th place Western Sharks, I think Kamo should take this, while they aren’t the biggest, fastest or best, they have a solid looking team across the board, although their lineout is a bit of a weakness IMO
Waipu, who defaulted in their away fixture last week, host Kerikeri, the visitors should be too strong for Waipu, who seem to be battling on and off the field this year and last year, after making the final in 2022
Crusaders v Rebels - April 26th
From the Forum
mariner4life
in 'NRL 2024'
April 25, 11:04pm
The Warriors need a hard reset.
Our attack has gone to shit. Linebreaks are non-existent, but our completion rates are awesome. We're back to that shit we played under Nathan Brown. Last year a strength was the complete faith in the process. This year it's a weakness because when it's not working, we're not trying anything else until we are chasing the game.
SJ isn't challenging the line enough, our sweep plays involve too much lateral running, and teams are just sliding. I am not sure of the stats, but i feel like our wingers score the smallest percentage of our tries in the league.
We're rubbishing Montoya, but he gets no ball in attack, gets no balls kicked to his wing, he's basically there to cart the ball out of our own end. We have no plan to get Roger in space, and to be fair, he doesn't look like taking the outside shoulder and putting a winger away.
Dallin is Dallin, rocks and diamonds. But there aren't many diamonds as he is starved of opportunity.
TMM is a waste of space. Harris is digging in to the line, but too often his pass is too deep, and the opposition knows it's coming.
I am fucking sick of the same set being played over and over for no result. Great plan if you have Penrith's defence and discipline. You get rewards. We can't force errors or jam a team in their own end. And then we'll give away a late penalty.
Webster needs to take a step back and have a look, i reckon we need the bye desperately for a reset. If every game looks exactly the same, it has to be by design.
Auckman
in 'Black Ferns 2024'
April 23, 11:46pm
Biggest Shock:
Krysten Cottrell (Blues) was the best first five in Aupiki yet misses out. Yes she may be a bit old but she was in form and the highest point scorer for the competition. Itunu is old too but she got the nod. Yet we have King (potential but not there yet) and Demant (she’s really a second-five & isn’t a goal kicker).
Really happy for:
Kahlia Awa (Blues) - brilliant for the Blues
Aldora Itunu (Blues) - ditto
Maama Vaipulu (Blues) - another blues player who knocked the door down
Iritana Hohaia (Poua) - done well in a losing Poua team
Layla Sa’e (Poua) - ditto
Kaipo Olsen-Baker (Matatu)
Career revival:
Kaipo Olsen-Baker (Matatu) - after being dropped in 2022 her form deserves selection this year
Patricia Maliepo (Blues) - great for Blues; returns for first time since 2021
Alora Itunu (Blues) - it’s been years!
Big sackings / end of career for:
AMT (Chiefs Manawa) - completely agree, she was rubbish this year
Hazel Tubic (Chiefs Manawa) - shocker in the final
Chelsea Semple (Chiefs Manawa) - absolute shocker in final, time to retire
Rosie Kelly (Matatu) - a bit unlucky, she showed glimpses
Charmaine McMeniman - it’s been a nice career for the old warhorse but it’s probably retirement time now
Coming back from injury contingent:
Joanna Ngan-Woo (Poua)
Awhina Tangen-Wainohu (Chiefs Manawa)
Ayesha Leti-Iiga (Poua)
Lucky to be selected:
Ariana Bayler (Chiefs Manawa) - pass is slow, no sniping game, doesn’t box kick, her only ability is to set up her pods and maybe her defence. Can’t believe she made it again.
Unlucky to miss out:
Grace Brooker (Matatu)
Victoria Edmonds (Chiefs Manawa)
Mia Anderson (Chiefs Manawa) - she got a half-contract
Half-contract contingent:
Pip Love (Matatu)
Liv McGoverne (Matatu)
Mia Anderson (Chiefs Manawa)
Negotiations ongoing:
Krystal Murray
Duluth
in 'Crusaders 2024'
April 21, 11:17pm
The Crusaders remaining matches (home team first)
Crusaders v Rebels
Crusaders v Reds
Highlanders v Crusaders
Brumbies v Crusaders
Crusaders v Blues
Crusaders v Pasifika
In 2023 five wins go you close to the top 8 (8th, 9th & 10th had 5 wins). 8th place had 24 points
in 2022 four wins was the line (8th, 9th & 10th had 4 wins). 8th place had 23 points
I think the line might be higher this year with a few more lower/mid table teams getting wins
Crusaders currently have 1 win and 7 points
So looking at what's left surely they are almost 100% likely to win that last match? Very likely to beat the Aussie sides in Christchurch?
So that would be 4 wins and at least 12 more points
Then they likely just need one win vs Highlanders (away), Brumbies (away) or Blues (home)
So they should still make the finals of this dumb system easily. If they trip up against the Rebels or Reds it'll get interesting though
Duluth
in 'Super Rugby 2024'
April 21, 10:37pm
Updating those Aus v NZ stats after the weekend. Three more games, two more Aussie wins. Every Aussie side now has at least one win against a NZ side now
Aussie Team
Matches vs NZ Sides
Wins vs NZ sides
Brumbies
3
1
Force
3
1
Reds
3
2
Rebels
2
1
Waratahs
4
2
Total
15
7
Aussies vs
Matches
Aussies Wins
Blues
3
0
Chiefs
2
1
Hurricanes
3
0
Crusaders
3
3
Highlanders
4
3
Total
15
7
Maybe this table should be split into North Island and South Island. The Chiefs letting down the North Island
Highlanders the best of the South with the only win vs an Aussie side. Overall 7 SI games against Aussies and 6 losses
Crusaders v Rebels - April 26th
Played | Won | Lost | Drawn | Diff | Bonus | Points | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 144 | 5 | 37 | |
8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 171 | 4 | 32 | |
8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 3 | 27 | |
9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | -56 | 4 | 24 | |
8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 88 | 3 | 23 | |
8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 64 | 6 | 22 | |
8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | -57 | 1 | 13 | |
8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | -140 | 1 | 13 | |
9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | -26 | 4 | 12 | |
8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | -39 | 4 | 12 | |
8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | -87 | 3 | 11 | |
8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | -89 | 1 | 9 |